Thailand's exports grew for the third consecutive month in January, in line with three major positive factors: the global economic recovery, increased prices for farm goods, and the elimination of tariffs under the Asean Free Trade Agreement, which is an import engine driving further economic growth.
Last month's exports grew 30.83 per cent year on year, the highest level in 18 months, to US$13.72 billion (Bt455.5 billion). Imports jumped 44.84 per cent to $13.21 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $510 million.
Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai yesterday said exports should continue to grow in the rest of the year following clear signs of a global economic recovery as well as rising commodity prices and benefits from FTAs.
"Although some negative factors are expected to hit exports, including political disorder, Vietnam's devaluation of the dong and labour shortages in some industries, the country's exports should grow considerably in the remaining months," she said.
The ministry stands by its export target for this year of 14 per cent growth to $173.8 billion. Exports in the first quarter are expected to grow by 17 per cent, worth $40 billion.
Porntiva said there was a combined shortage of about 500,000 workers across some industries, in particular garments and electronics manufacturing. The government is attempting to help solve the problem by relaxing regulations to allow the industries to employ foreign labour during the shortage.
She also said the political conflict should not damage Thai export growth.
"I strongly believe the government can control the situation on February 26. The dong's devaluation in recent days has also had only a slight impact on Thai export competitiveness," said Porntiva.
The ministry's permanent secretary, Yanyong Phuangrach, also said the dong's devaluation had only a small impact on Thai exports. He said the affected sectors included rice, seafood, and processed and canned foods.
However, he foresees large opportunities for Thai exports to Vietnam, as that country relies on raw materials imported from Thailand. The devaluation of the dong will benefit Thai exports rather than create difficulty for Thai competitiveness, Yanyong said.
He added that if February 26 - when the Supreme Court is due to rule in ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra's assets-seizure case - did not lead any extreme actions such as port closures or strikes, it should not affect the country's exports.
January's shipments showed significant improvement in all sectors and markets. Exports of agro-industrial and industrial sectors grew by 46.2 per cent and 27.8 per cent, respectively.
Malee Choklumlerd, deputy director-general of the Department of Export Promotion, said that after discussions with leaders of key industrial sectors, every industry had high confidence of robust growth this year.
For instance, exports of food and agricultural products are expected to grow by 7-8 per cent from last year's 13.5-per-cent contraction; industrial goods exports should increase by 14 per cent this year from last year's fall of 12.1 per cent; and automobile exports are expected to achieve 8-per-cent growth from last year's 27.7-per-cent contraction.
Shipments to major destinations showed dramatic increases last month: by 141.7 per cent to India, 94.2 per cent to China, 66 per cent to five countries in Asean (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei), 58.3 per cent to "Indochina" (Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Burma), 15.9 per cent each to Japan and the United States, and 9.3 per cent to the European Union.
