Suriyasai Katasila, spokesman for the yellow shirt People's Alliance for Democracy and the New Politics Party, answers questions from the The Nation's Political Desk about the upcoming ruling in the historic assets-foreclosure case and its consequences.
What is your view about the political situation around February 26 [when the court verdict is scheduled to be read]?Whatever the court's ruling will be, the political conflict won't end or ease immediately. The verdict will be interpreted by the [rival] political camps in a way that would serve their cause. I think Thaksin [Shinawatra, an ex-PM and defendant in the case] and his people look beyond this Bt76-billion assets-seizure case. They may already be expecting a bad outcome. Thaksin and the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship [the red shirts] have arranged an "army" for a protracted war. This case is just a battle, not a war. They may lose this battle but that does not mean they will lose the war. They are waging a war but the government just thinks of occasional battles. If things go on like this, the government may be defeated in the last battle.
Is it possible the verdict will not be delivered on February 26?That's impossible. If the verdict cannot be read due to political disturbances, the justice system's reputation will be damaged. When the state's power is challenged, confidence in the country will be severely affected. I don't think the DAAD and Thaksin's network will aim at pressuring for a collapse of the case because they will risk destroying their legitimacy. In doing so, authorities will get the legitimacy to crack down on them. Criticising courts is a very sensitive issue in Thai society.
If there is violence, do you think it will happen before or after D-Day?Possibly it would take place before February 26 or the violence would end before February 26. It is obvious that an unidentified armed group has been designed to get involved. This is not only to incite violence or rioting by the red shirts, but also to bring about political changes before or after February 26.
I don't think this issue is about three groups; it's rather 2½ groups - the Thaksin group, the anti-Thaksin group and a half group that sides with none of the two. They include the smaller coalition parties. Which of them does not want to rejoin Thaksin politically if the spoils are shared satisfactorily?
What is your suggestion for the country to minimise the impact?
All the parties must respect the justice process and allow the judiciary to work independently. If you campaign against the courts and the justice system, the country won't go anywhere. Disputes and court cases will not come to a conclusion. Pitching the masses against one another has become a new political model. If this is allowed to continue, the country's outlook is hopeless.
Is the PAD going to accept the court verdict?
The PAD has set no conditions for the justice system. In the past we presented arguments on legal and constitutional issues. On many of the cases, we won and the courts agreed to a review. Not once did we rally to pressure the courts. We are always ready to respect the justice system.
What could cause the yellow shirts to call another major rally?
Now there are no conditions for the PAD to come out for a rally. It's now a matter between the government on one side and the DAAD and Thaksin on the other. The situation and equation of power are ever changing and getting more complex. Before our next move, we need to make a careful analysis to clearly identify friends and foes so that we won't end up becoming a victim of any group of power. In this situation, it's better we stay put in our safe zone.
Rumours of a coup have become rife, what do you think about its likelihood?
There exist conditions for a coup. Our country is facing a security crisis and there are conditions for violence. With those factors, there is a possibility of a coup. I'm not convinced the DAAD and Thaksin oppose a coup if that serves their interest. Their ongoing rally is undeniably an invitation for a coup.
