TEN DAYS TO GO. As you read this, it will be nine. When the Supreme Court delivers its verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra's Bt76 billion in frozen assets on February 26, we will see the culmination of seven interrelated events that have been responsible for our political misery over the past few years and will surely take us further down into uncharted territory.
There are more elements to the forthcoming Judgement Day, but I have selected these seven events because they are key to why we have come to this point.
The "twin evils" of Ample Rich and Win Mark. They represent a business mentality that Thaksin supporters may argue is not so immoral as to warrant a coup and its nasty aftermath, but which nonetheless set the ball rolling toward where we are today. If the Thai military and "elite" are conspiring opportunists, Thaksin entering politics with the nominee firms hoarding shares on his behalf was like a boxer entering the ring with his guard down.
The Constitution Court's acquittal. The referee could have stopped the fight right there, so to speak. Seeing Thaksin going into the ring so precariously, the court in 2001 could have just said, "This isn't your arena. Please leave." Instead, the court, with the murkiest of acquittal verdicts, tried to "protect" an "elected leader" by letting him off the hook over the share concealment scandal. The rest is academic.
The Sondhi Limthongkul revolt. The media tycoon went on various records to basically proclaim how the court's acquittal gave Thailand "the best prime minister it's ever had". Vested business interests among political leaders are normal even in the United States, he said. The Thaksin-Sondhi alliance was a powerful one until its spectacular break-up turned Thai politics on its head.
The Temasek takeover. The Sondhi mutiny, mocked by doubters and largely ignored by the neutrals, gained massive momentum once Thaksin sold Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek for Bt68 billion without paying any tax. Sondhi won new allies and what started off as major nuisance as far as Thaksin was concerned developed into a political earthquake that shook the Thaksin omnipresence to its core.
The September 2006 coup. Even as rebellious Sondhi and his yellow-shirted followers were laying siege to Government House, nobody could imagine that Thaksin's entire wealth (at least the wealth that we knew of) would be frozen and subjected to permanent seizure by the state. The weeks-long, vociferous protests seemed to be taking Thai politics to an impasse, made absolute by the Democrat Party's refusal to take part in an election Thaksin called in a desperate bid to gain a new mandate.
The military stepped in on September 19, 2006. And although parliamentary power briefly returned to Thaksin's political force following a general election more than a year later, nothing could stop the summary probe into his allegedly ill-gotten wealth.
The hand of justice (or injustice, from Thaksin's perspective). Dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai and then People Power parties weakened any effort to nullify, or at least put on hold, the assets case.
The Newin defection. If the Pheu Thai Party - which Thai Rak Thai and People Power had morphed into - had beaten Abhisit Vejjajiva in the thrilling 2008 race to the premiership, it would be very doubtful that "Judgement Day" would have come under its watch. Newin Chidchob's political U-turn helped make sure that Thaksin's staggering wealth - made controversial by the involvement of Ample Rich and Win Mark, ignored by the Constitution Court, liquidated in the tax-free Temasek takeover, exposed by friend-turned-foe Sondhi in 2006, and put under investigation after the 2006 coup - faces judgement on February 26.
I'm very tempted to add a number eight. What might have happened had Thaksin simply chosen to resign, pay the taxes and live a normal rich businessman's life is anyone's guess. Before the coup made it too late, there was a window of opportunity, every step of the way, for him to decide that, whether there was a conspiracy against him or not, it was too risky for him to remain in politics.
His unwavering belief that it was all right for the patriarch of one of Thailand's biggest business empires to be in a political position that could make or break those businesses helped seal it. Although Shin Corp enjoyed a meteoric rise when he was prime minister, something else also happened - and this should serve as a serious warning to any future "Thaksin". All his eggs went into one political basket, and there is no avoiding Judgement Day now.
