THAKSIN Shinawatra's grand design to set up a "people's army" to topple the Abhisit government collapsed even before it took shape, due to the conflict between his generals and the leaders of the red shirts. There is rivalry over self-serving interests.
His great army, comprising gullible rural villagers, ex-rangers and hardcore red shirts, has no leader. The plan to cajole General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh to accept the leadership to spearhead the push for the final showdown failed miserably.
The old soldier - though known as a Mr Nice Guy who never likes to turn down friends' requests, and for frequent bumbling - was wise enough this time not to risk more legal trouble that could arise from treason and sedition charges.
Thaksin is indeed desperate to make some headway in his struggle to protect his assets now frozen by the state. The Supreme Court will rule on February 26 whether the Bt76 billion in assets should be permanently confiscated for undue self-enrichment and questionable wealth.
The idea to mobilise the "people's army", similar to Chairman Mao's long march strategy, came from a joint meeting in Dubai between Thaksin and his confidants and field troops. They agreed that a multi-pronged push must be coordinated to counter possible coup attempts in case their urban fight becomes a serious threat to the government and the country's revered institutions.
Alas! Not only General Chavalit foresaw failure; Thaksin's generals were at loggerheads with the trio who lead the red shirts in their street campaign against their adversaries, including Cabinet members.
The conflict became so serious, with one calling another a "decomposed dog" and "washed up Army general who has outlasted his usefulness". This was due to the fear on the part of the trio that their leadership role would be taken away by the generals who want a decisive battle instead of periodic street rallies.
It is known that the funding for the rallies has been provided by Thaksin and his cronies, but the bulk of the war chest has been siphoned off by the threesome to enrich themselves - so much so that their wealth has become conspicuous and they are now the subject of jeers among the insiders.
General Pallop Pinmanee, a self-styled, battle-hardened soldier with coup experience, has decided to pull out from the joint campaign led by the trio after verbal insults demeaning his status. But Seh Daeng, the rogue junior general, continues to work for the red shirts, simply because he has nowhere else to go.
The trio of red-shirt leaders have become very arrogant, believing that they have the charisma to organise protest rallies whenever they want. They have not realised that the previous successes were mainly due to the eagerness of the red shirts to hear Thaksin's harangues and tirades against his enemies.
Thaksin will have to smooth out the conflicts among his warriors before the ultimate battle to oust the government and change the national structure.
On another front, there has been another serious battle between his trusted hands Chalerm Yoobamrung and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, who have had no love lost between them for a long time.
Chalerm, as leader of the House MPs under Thaksin, wants to be prime minister, but his ambition has been hampered by the political femme fatale who also has the ear and the heart of Thaksin, so to speak. They are indeed perfect enemies, sharing an ill-concealed mutual hatred. The boss in exile will have to show skills in persuading the two to bury the hatchet for a while before the goal can be achieved.
On another front, the appearance of Cambodian leader Hun Sen on the border was seen as a provocative act that will cause further tension and keep Thai troops on alert. The strategy seems to be to divert the military's attention so that there might not be enough troops to quell riots if the red shirts create mayhem before the Supreme Court's judgement on the assets case. The Abhisit government saw through the Cambodian leader's game, and Hun Sen had to stand down from his devious scheme.
All this does not bode well for Thaksin's latest plan to regain power and his assets. If there is indeed an all-out confrontation, Thaksin and his cronies could learn a final lesson that is too expensive to bear, with a number of people having to leave the country in a hurry to share the same predicament abroad with their boss.
