The SET Index is likely drop to its lowest 2010 level of about 550 points in the second half of the year, Tisco Securities said yesterday, adding that the bourse had already peaked for the year.
The brokerage also forecast there would be an outflow of about Bt50 billion by foreign investors, as hedge funds have removed their investments from risk assets because many governments have started to scale down their economic stimulus measures.
"The SET Index has already reached its highest level of 753 points [for the year] and is expected to fall continuously from August. This will be mainly driven by mounting sales of risk assets such as stocks and gold by global hedge funds, rather than due to any political effect," said Viwat Techapoonpol, director of the research department. "We will see brokers and investors cut losses in their investment portfolios."
Foreign investors recorded net inflows of Bt60 billion in 2009.
Viwat said the average dividend yield would be 5 per cent, while the outflow from stocks by foreign investors would move to bonds.
However, the outflow of foreign funds will be the main factor affecting the bourse, not any political issue. He said lack of clarity about the fate of the suspended projects in Map Ta Phut would not affect the SET Index much, as it had already been factored in.
Viwat suggested investors should buy stocks at the end of February, after the verdict in the Thaksin Shinawatra assets-seizure case. Another good time would be after August, when the SET Index is likely to be dropping to its lowest point for the year.
