WHY ARE WE hearing predictions of another crisis threatening the political landscape? This time it's being dubbed the "February Turmoil".
In other words: If you want to know who's plotting to throw the country into such a disastrous state of affairs, then find out who would gain most from a nation torn apart by an outbreak of violence that could deteriorate into a civil war.
More specifically, on a related issue, if you are wondering why there has been a rash of rumours about a possible coup, ask yourself: Who gains the most from spreading this speculation?
Would the Abhisit government stand to gain if a coup should take place? Would the powers-that-be tighten their hold on power if violence should break out on the streets?
On the other hand, would the military establishment gain an enhanced reputation as a professional institution if the Army chief or one of his deputies (as the persistent speculation has it) should decide to take things into their own hands?
Army chief Anupong Paochinda stated for the umpteenth time this week, "I repeat, there's no coup plan," adding that rumours to this effect had been started by "those wanting to divide the country".
My take is much simpler: The rumours were initiated and kept alive by those who were using the Army to mobilise people to put pressure on the judiciary leading up to the February 26 court verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra's Bt76 billion in frozen assets.
It's not an anti-coup campaign, per se. In fact, one school of thought even argues that Thaksin would in fact stand to gain from another coup.
Because of that, some red-shirt leaders were even quietly praying that some wayward Army officers would be dumb enough to attempt a putsch. That would give Thaksin the excuse to call for a popular uprising, handing him the justification to set up a "government-in-exile".
But for Thaksin's strategists, first things first. The immediate concern is February 26. Any instigation to topple Abhisit and launch a ploy to return to power can wait for a few weeks. The name of the game is how to employ both threats and pressure against those in the judicial branch who are in a position to influence the outcome of the legal process.
Therefore, for the troublemakers, plotters and instigators, the idea of turning February into a month of great horror isn't based on the fear of a real coup. It's about "coup rumours".
A real coup happens without advance warning. But coup rumours, apart from aborting a possible revolt, could be useful as a mob mobilisation tool.
And if making repeated, heated statements about a coup begins to draw cynical reactions from critics, simply hurl a few bags of excrement and fermented fish at the PM's house.
That will ensure that February becomes the "month of foul-smelling horror".
