BUTTRESSED by both internal and external dynamics, the Asean members are facing huge dilemmas in sustaining their unity and catching up with new political concepts. Along with the Burmese crisis, the South China Sea dispute, human-rights controversies, the breakdown of the interface between the Asean leaders and civil groups continuing to divide the grouping, proactive diplomacy by dialogue partners, especially the US, Japan and Australia, has now posed serious challenges against Asean centrality, relevancy and its collective action.
Interestingly, the greatest untold fear among Asean members is the fast-moving developments inside Burma among the various stakeholders including the junta, the opposition and the minorities - something which the Asean members have yet to play any role in. While the junta completely ignored the Asean appeal to free Aung San Suu Kyi, it has wisely chosen to engage the US bilaterally by responding positively to US overtures, at least for now. It knows full well that any tangible outcome in US-Burma ties will directly affect regional politics, in particular Asean.
On Wednesday, Kurt Campbell, assistant US Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, revealed that the US is dispatching a fact-finding team to Burma in the next few weeks to meet with representatives of the junta, the opposition and ethnic groups. This is a significant diplomatic move by both sides. Dispatching and welcoming fact-finding teams implies mutual recognition and concerns. Campbell was confident enough to announce that during the visit, the US team will meet Suu Kyi and the senior leaders of the National League of Democracy.
In the immediate future, the US administration will focus on Burma's planned election next year. In the case that the ongoing dialogue, which began in September, between the junta and the opposition groups produces a workable formula for the upcoming poll that is acceptable to the US, the junta will be able to return to the international fold. A senior Asean diplomat quipped that anything better than Afghanistan's recent election would be all right.
For the time being, there is no reason for the junta to upset the US policy-makers. This window is the only opportunity if the junta wants to move forward. The scheduled Asean-US summit on November 15 in Singapore could turn out to be the US-Burma summit. Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein has been invited to join the other Asean leaders. As the co-chair of the summit, along with US President Obama, it is incumbent for Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to articulate Asean views and shape the outcome.
When former US President Ronald Reagan engaged the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s, it subsequently brought down the latter's empire and opened up Eastern Europe, which quickly turned to democracy. Albeit too far-fetched at this juncture, the US's latest foray into Burma could yield similar results over time. Indeed, such a prospect has already sent chills down the spines of several undemocratic Asean members.
In the coming weeks, if the junta is able to reconcile with Suu Kyi and other stakeholders over issues related to the future of democratic governance, an inclusive electoral process and sanctions, the pariah state could reform and become tolerated. Over time, so goes the conventional wisdom, deeper and broader changes would be inevitable inside Burma. Under the Obama administration, dialogue with pariah states has become a diplomatic trademark. Any progress on Burma would allow the US to augment its level playing field in this region, and then zero in on priority areas in the Middle East.
Apart from Burma, external powers are also interested in the future regional architecture. They deem it too important to be left to Asean alone. For over a decade, the concept of regional community-building in East Asia has been on the Asean agenda. Asean has taken it for granted that it will forever maintain its leading role without any challenge.
For one thing, the grouping believed wrongly that major dialogue partners such as China, Japan and Korea would not be able to reconcile, improve and strengthen their friendships so swiftly. If the previous tripartite meeting in Shanghai, in early October, was a barometer, the big three have minds of their own, with or without Asean, about the formation of a regional architecture.
So when new Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama began pushing for an East Asian community that would include the US, Asean was up in arms. Nobody is quite sure though what Hatoyama has in mind. At the moment, Asean is pursuing the Asean Plus Three process (Asean, China, Japan and Korea) as the modality of regional community-building in East Asia. This process does not include the US or the rest of the Pacific Rim countries.
When Hatoyama arrives in Hua Hin and Cha-am this weekend, he will have a lot of explanation for the Asean leaders. So will Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who has brought with him a new Asia-Pacific Community plan that will include and challenge the future role of Asean.
These counter-proposals and the mounting external pressure are clear warnings that Asean has to shape up or opt out. No dialogue partner is willing to accept the grouping at face value anymore. The 21st century world is different - actions speak louder than words. That helps explain why Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has to take Asean to task. In his opening speech at the Cha-am Summit this morning, he will call for more and prompt action from Asean leaders in response to internal and external challenges.
In short, Asean no longer has the luxury of time to do it the Asean way.