Vote counts in India yesterday showed Prime Minister Narendra Modi cruising to another five-year term. Defying the pre-poll forecast, the right-wing BJP-lead coalition is expected to win a comfortable majority, riding a wave of Hindu nationalism and aggressive national security slogans.
Described as the most powerful and divisive Indian leader in decades, Modi in his re-election is likely to have significant implications for regional geopolitics given his jingoistic rhetoric. His election campaign largely revolved around projecting himself as India’s “chowkidar” or watchman, and bashing Pakistan.
Secularism falls, nationalism rises
India is increasingly politically polarised as Modi tries to turn the country into a Hindu nation. Secularism, which kept the multi-ethnic and multifaith country united, has weakened – that is likely to have a direct bearing on India’s regional policy under Modi 2.0. If his electoral mandate is strong, as expected, we can expect significant societal change in the country.
The prospect of Modi’s return to power is most distressing for India’s minorities. The BJP’s politics, rooted in Hindu supremacist groups, have polarised this heterogeneous country, raising fear and tensions. Mob violence against Muslims, who make up about 14 per cent of India’s population, and lower-caste Hindus has risen alarmingly. In many cases, the right-wing communal groups that form the nucleus of Modi’s support base have perpetrated the violence. And the bloodshed often goes unpunished. A divided and rudderless opposition will hardly be able to stop the BJP’s communal roller-coaster.
Unlike the 2014 elections when Modi swept to power with an economic agenda that won him the support and funding of corporate India, this time he garnered support on the basis of national security. India’s incursion into Pakistani territory, the first since the 1971 war, just weeks before the polls, was used by Modi to whip up nationalist fervour – even though the attack on alleged militant camps proved baseless, and Pakistan downed Indian Air Force jets.
Modi’s claim of destroying terrorist camps and killing hundreds of militants in the strike may be preposterous, but the incursion itself has huge symbolic significance and propaganda value for his government. With that burst of jingoism, Modi’s approval ratings instantly shot up. The portrait of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, the Indian pilot who was briefly made prisoner by Pakistan, adorned BJP rallies.
Modi’s recklessness may have won him votes in the Hindu heartland, but it brought the region close to a conflagration. The underlying calculation of Modi’s escalation was that India could afford this brinkmanship given the country’s growing diplomatic clout.
As one of the fastest-growing economies, India’s standing has significantly improved. But Pakistan’s retaliation to the Balakot attack foiled Modi’s attempt to set a new norm. That, however, hasn’t affected India’s nationalist frenzy.
Tensions with nuclear neighbour
Second-term Modi will face multiple challenges, particularly on the economic front. Although he seems to have emerged from the polls relatively unscathed by slower-than-expected economic growth, rising joblessness and the worsening plight of farmers, it will be a tough job for him to put the economy back on track in an increasingly polarised atmosphere and with India’s growing militarisation.
Modi’s re-election will certainly not be good news for Kashmiris fighting for their right to self-determination. The brutal use of force by the Indian military and the latter’s gross human rights violations have failed to crush the Kashmiris’ struggle. The situation in the disputed territory is worse than at any time in the past. One of the reasons behind Modi’s escalation in Pakistan was to divert the world’s attention from the popular uprising against Indian atrocities in India-held Kashmir.
The BJP has promised to abolish Article 370 of the Indian constitution that provides the disputed territory a special status. There is no indication of Modi 2.0 changing his policy on Kashmir. That may lead to a rise in violence in the occupied territory. Such a situation will have a direct bearing on relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. But blaming Pakistan will not help New Delhi deal with the Kashmiri struggle. What the Indian government refuses to accept is that it is India’s problem rather than an external challenge – and one that it needs to deal with. Confrontation with Pakistan will only aggravate the situation.
There is no indication tensions with Pakistan will ease under Modi 2.0. Modi’s re-election will be projected as a vindication of his belligerent policy towards the nuclear-armed neighbour. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s hopes that it would be easier to deal with a right-wing Indian government under Modi has rightly drawn huge scepticism. One big question is whether Modi will now change his policy of “offensive defence”.
Modi seeks to use force rather than dialogue to resolve outstanding problems between the two countries. Surely, it is in the interest of Pakistan to reduce regional tensions and take a more prudent approach. Will Modi respond positively to Imran Khan’s peace gesture? It remains to be seen whether Modi 2.0 will be any different than his first incarnation. Some Indian analysts believe that a more confident Modi would resuscitate the currently stalled diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan. But will the resumption of dialogue produce lasting peace in the subcontinent?