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4Q13: iPSTAR paying off to bring 11-year high

Thaicom Plc (THCOM)



4Q13 core hit 11-year high of Bt457mn (84% YoY and 25% QoQ) thanks to iPSTAR and the sale of its loss-making mobile business in Cambodia. Other income pushed 4Q13 above SCBS.

2014F growth another 32%. 2013 brought impressive earnings growth of 73% and we expect 2014F to be another good year with 32% growth, backed by continued iPSTAR growth, especially in China (just started in Nov 2013), Thaicom 6 (launched in Jan 2014 with 66% of transponders already booked) and the launch of Thaicom 7 ~mid-2014. We maintain our Buy with a new TP of Bt46 (rounded up) after rolling to end-2014. TP is based on SOTP consisting of Bt42.9/sh for satellite and telephony business (WACC 9.5%, 1% terminal growth) and Bt3/sh for its 42% in CSL (from mid-year TP of Bt42).

Highlights:

4Q13 revenue grew 22% YoY to Bt2.27bn from both satellite and telephony business in Laos. YoY revenue growth before consolidation removal of satellite (conventional satellite/iPSTAR) and telephony was 34% (23%/14%) and 27% respectively.

Calculated from revenue and cost breakdowns, the biggest contributor to earnings growth was iPSTAR, where gross profit leapt 71% YoY to Bt355mn in 4Q13.

Although core earnings soared 84% YoY to Bt457mn, a Bt170mn unrealized FX loss (US$ loan and baht depreciation against US$) slashed 4Q13net profit to Bt287mn.

THCOM announced a 2013 DPS of Bt0.45, XD on Apr 1 and payment on Apr 23.




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