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4Q13: Solid as expected; upbeat on 2014F

Supalai Plc (SPALI)

4Q13: Solid as expected; upbeat on 2014F

4Q13 net profit of Bt1.8bn (EPS Bt1.02) in line with all expectations, +9% YoY and 401% QoQ, backed by high revenue; 2013 net profit is Bt2.9bn (EPS Bt1.68), +5%.

We look for 2014F a high 45% earnings growth to Bt4.1bn, with huge backlog securing 82% of our forecast. We roll our TP to end-2014, which raises it to Bt23 (2.5x 2014 PBV). We continue to like SPALI on high visibility, superior growth and strong B/S. BUY.


Revenue was a record of Bt6.7bn, +20% YoY and +247% QoQ, on transfer of condo units (Supalai Park Ratchapruek-Petchkasem, City Resort Ratchada-Huaykwang).

Gross margin dropped to 41.2% in 4Q13 from 46.1% in 4Q12 on a rise in construction cost, but increased from 40.2% in 3Q13 due to product mix.

SG&A expenses/revenue at 8.3% in 4Q13 from 9.3% in 4Q12 on lower marketing expenses, in line with lower presales (Bt6.3bn in 4Q13 vs. Bt8.3bn in 4Q12).

B/S was strong with net gearing at 0.5x in 4Q13 from 0.7x in 3Q13.

Final DPS of Bt0.4 (yield 2.3%) announced, XD on March 7. Including interim, total DPS is Bt0.7 (yield 4.0%), implying a payout ratio of 44%.

Look for superior growth in 2014F. SPALI had backlog of Bt39.2bn at end-December 2013, supporting our forecast of high 45% growth to Bt4.1bn (EPS of Bt2.37) in 2014. Of the Bt39.2bn, we estimate Bt14.8bn will be transferred this year and Bt16.4bn next, securing 82% of 2014F and 85% of 2015F. Product mix is 63% condo, 37% low-rise, reversing last year's 45:55.

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