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Politics to pressure next year's economy: UTCC

The Thai economy may expand below 3 per cent next year, if political instability continues and drives tourists away as well as further dent public confidence, according to the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.



Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university’s Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said that in the worst case scenario which shows a 5-10 per cent probability, the economic growth would be below 3 per cent based on the economic damage of Bt200-Bt300 billion.

The university plots four scenarios. In the most possible scenario, political stability will return and public spending goes as planned. In this circumstance, the economy would expand by 4.5 per cent (which is revised downward from previous forecast of 5.1 per cent).

In this scenario, economic damage from the political instability is estimated at Bt70 billion to Bt100 billion.

The university today also revised downward the growth forecast for 2013 from 3.5 per cent to 3 per cent, due mainly to the political situation. The chaos are expected to cause damage of between Bt30-Bt70 billion, which will shave off the growth rate by 0.3-0.5 percentage point.


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