Ministry upbeat on farms amid warnings

Flood experts warn that extreme weather phenomena, including droughts and floods, could become regular occurrences, while economists said downturns in key markets could hit the farm sector.

The Agriculture Ministry remains optimistic on Thailand's farm sector, however, projecting growth by 4.5-5.5 per cent this year - assuming no natural disasters.

The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) yesterday predicted that 2012 would in fact be a brighter year for the sector, which last year grew 2.2 per cent, on expectations of a return to normalcy after last year's floods, as well as higher prices of farm goods internationally.

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut said the farm sector should grow strongly this year. Farm goods will be in high demand in the world market, and Thailand, which is one of the world's major crop suppliers, should earn more from farm production and exports, the minister said.

However, risk factors facing growth this year include the effects of climate change and further natural disasters, along with the slowdowns in many major global economies. To promote the growth of farmers' incomes, Theera said the ministry would this year focus on supporting farm-goods processing and closer cooperation with other agricultural-based nations in Asean to promote Thailand as a regional agricultural trading centre.

Apichart Jongsakul, secretary-general of the OAE, said the effect of La Nina, a phenomenon that will create a huge amount of rainfall this year, would be to raise the prices of most commodities, mainly rice, cassava, sugar cane, oil palm, rubber and livestock.

"The rising price of farm crops will encourage the growth of the farming sector. The impact of La Nina in many countries, mainly those that rely on farming, will be to encourage higher crop prices," Apichart said.

Moreover, increasing demand for fuel crops, which has raised concerns about food security, will also drive the growth of the agriculture sector this year.

Dr Seree Supharatid, director of the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park's Energy for Environment Centre, said Thailand was at risk from the effects of climate change, including both flooding and drought.

He warned the government to manage water carefully to ensure an adequate supply for farming and industry usage, as well as prevent a repeat of the flooding of last year.

"More than 30 storms will hit Thailand this year. The climate variable will be the most important concern that the government should take into account in administrating the farm sector," Seree said.

Sompop Manarungsan, economist and rector of Panyapiwat Institute of Management, said Thailand must increase its efficiency of planning to protect not only the industrial sector but also farmers, as floods are expected to recur this year.

The world will see high demand for food. As Thailand is one of the world's leading food suppliers, the country must carefully manage its farm sector and seek measures to increase production capacity and protect farming areas from natural disasters, Sompop advised.

Olarn Chaipravat, an adviser to the prime minister, said a more balanced water-management system was needed.

The OAE's report showed that both the output and prices of the main commodities were projected to increase. Growth in production of crops including rice, sugar cane, rubber, oil palm and cassava is forecast to increase to 6.3-7.3 per cent from 3.8 per cent last year.