Globlex offers advice on gold speculation

Economy February 12, 2014 00:00

By The Nation

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Globlex Holding Management suggests investors speculate in gold at a price range of US$1,240-$1,295 per ounce or Bt19,270-Bt20,120 per baht weight, while keeping a watch on the US monetary stimulus programme, which will be wound down this year.

Soros Sakornvisava, managing director of GBX, said yesterday that gold prices gained support from the less-than-expected rise in US non-agriculture employment to 113,000 positions and the European Central Bank’s monetary easing. The bank also held its benchmark rate at the historical low of 0.25 per cent.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for the US in January also dropped to 51.3 from December’s 56.5 after manufacturing purchase orders fell to a 33-year low.

However, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its monthly bond purchases and end the stimulus this year if the US economy expands as expected, and this continues to put pressure on gold prices.

Last week, gold fell $25.04 per ounce, or 2.02 per cent from the previous week, to $1,269.30 as of 10:30am on Monday. The bottom was $1,240.60 with the peak at $1,274.07. Gold rose on US manufacturing’s slowdown.

Gold could continue its rises in the short run if it does not pass the resistance level at $1,250.

On the securities front, the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s composite index may rebound in the short term and if it continues rising to test the resistance level at 1,308-1,309 points and 1,320 points, and stay above the average of 1,295-1,293 points for five to 10 weeks.

GBX prefers Power Line Engineering (PLE) with support levels of Bt1.56 and Bt1.52 and resistance level of Bt1.68, given its price rebound to test the prior resistance level in three weeks. If the stock price does not retreat to close below the BollingerTop line at Bt1.56 or does not fall through the five-day average of Bt1.52.

GBX also picks AMATA. The stock’s support levels stand at Bt13.60 and Bt13.20 with the resistance level at Bt14.00-Bt14.10, given the price that could rise to a new high in three weeks and the sharp increase in volume. It may make a new high in a range of Bt14.00-Bt14.10.

The support level of Jasmine International (JAS) is Bt7.20 and resistance level is Bt7.55. The price rebounded to its new high in one week with a surge in volume. The stock could rebound to test the next resistance level at Bt7.55.