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Bangkok Expressway

November brings a new high for traffic BUY

Bangkok Expressway Plc (BECL)

Traffic made a record high at 1.14mn trips/day, +10% YoY and +5% MoM, in

Nov 2012, partly off last year's low base and partly the strong car sales

ST catalysts: 1) high traffic in Dec 2012; 2) potential gain/valuation rerating

from listing CK Power; 3) expected rise in toll rate (Sep 2013

onwards) based on the Feb 2013 inflation rate (announced on 1 Mar 2013)

Maintain BUY with a 12-month SOTP PT of Bt35

Outstanding traffic in Nov 2012. In November 2012, BECL reported record high daily

traffic movement of 1.14mn trips, +10% YoY and +5% MoM. The outstanding growth

was off last year's low base from the floods (the closure of a part of sector C+ in Nov

2011) and the record high domestic car sales. This brings 11M12 traffic growth to +6.4%

YoY, slightly above our 2012 forecast of 6.0% YoY.

Next catalysts in 1Q13F. The next catalysts are expected in 1Q13F: 1) a potential

gain/valuation re-rating from listing CK Power (30% held by BECL at cost of Bt10/sh);

2) an expected +Bt5/car rise in toll rate in Sep 2013, based on the Feb 2013 inflation

rate, announced on 1 Mar 2013. If CPI for Bangkok in Feb 2013 is at least 114.44

(implying inflation rate of +2.67%), BECL can request EXAT to authorize a rise in toll

rate. This would take until August to approve, with the tolls raised from 1 Sep 2013

onwards. Based on recent inflation numbers (CPI for Bangkok was 114.79 in Nov 2012),

BECL is very likely to receive approval for a +Bt5/car toll rate hike next year.

Maintain BUY. We maintain BUY on the counter with end-13 SOTP PT of Bt35. We like

BECL for its upcoming catalysts: 1) continued strong traffic growth in December partly

off last year's low base from the floods and strong domestic car sales; 2) potential

gain/valuation re-rating from listing CK Power (30% held by BECL at cost of Bt10/sh);

3) anticipation of a toll rate hike (Sep 2013 onwards) from the announcement of

inflation rate (in Feb 2013, announced on 1 Mar 2013).


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