SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) forecasts the Thai economy to expand 3.0 per cent this year but the ongoing political unrest is a major risk that could drag the growth down to 2.4 per cent.
EIC expects exports to grow 6 per cent, becoming the economy's main engine this year. The export recovery is boosted by global economic recovery and will offset the weak domestic demand.
EIC expects the bath to range between Bt32 and Bt35 per US dollar and that the Bank of Thailand will cut the policy interest rate this year. The BOT is likely to reduce the policy rate to 1.75 per cent during the first half of this year in order to stimulate the economy, given that the fiscal stimulus is lacking and the inflation remains low. But concern about capital outflows will constrain the BOT from reducing the interest rate too aggressively.