POPULARITY CONTEST: Democrats ‘losing ground’ in their southern stronghold

Published on February 18, 2005

Party’s votes in region increase 4% on 2001, while Thai Rak Thai saw a rise of 200%

Despite winning almost all constituencies in the South on February 6, the Democrat Party may soon lose its stronghold in the region. The Democrats’ popular party list vote in the 14 southern provinces increased only by 4 per cent, while Thai Rak Thai’s soared by 200 per cent compared to the general election in 2001.

Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin Chidchob, who was assigned to oversee Thai Rak Thai’s campaign in the South, said government performance was the main reason voters had favoured the ruling party.

Political pundits pointed out that the jump in the popular vote was thanks mostly to the party’s sophisticated membership system and marketing practises that drew first-time voters.

Thai Rak Thai’s popular votes rose by about 600,000, from 320,000 at the last election to almost one million in the recent poll. The Democrats’ votes in the South increased by only 100,000.

Even though the Democrats won 52 MP seats from the total 54 southern constituencies – leaving only one seat in Phang Nga to the ruling party, and another to Chat Thai – the opposition party’s popular votes in several provinces decreased compared to the previous general election.

For example, the Democrats received 573,351 votes in Nakhon Si Thammarat in 2001, but this year, the party collected only 542,611, a fall of 30,740. A similar drop was also seen in Chumphon, Phuket and Phang Nga.

Thai Rak Thai increased its popular vote count in every province in the South, especially in Songkhla, where the number jumped by 101,302 (from 36,490 to 137,792). In the remaining provinces, the ruling party saw increases of between 30,000 and 70,000 votes.

Newin said that people appreciated the government’s performance and that Thai Rak Thai was widely accepted by people in the South, in much the same way as the Democrat Party.

“Our popular votes increased by as much as three times in the 14 southern provinces, proving that we are accepted,” he said.

He conceded, however, that it would be some time before Thai Rak Thai overtook the Democrats completely.

“Thai Rak Thai was founded less than 10 years ago and we certainly cannot match the number of constituency seats held by the Democrats, but the government’s performance ensured greater acceptance – a sign that political change has begun,” he said.

Newin added that the government’s action in response to the December 26 tsunami and its handling of rubber prices had won the party favour in the South. He predicted that if Thai

Rak Thai continued its populist policies, it would be able to match the Democrats at the next election.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a security analyst at Chulalongkorn University’s International Relations Department, cited three reasons behind Thai Rak Thai’s popularity in the South: its progressive membership system, the increase in young voters, and public perception of its practical performance and policies.

He said the southern electorate’s decision was based on the party’s practical policies. However, there remains concern about personal security, which is why they still voted for the Democrats at the constituency ballot.

“They still don’t trust Thai Rak Thai’s security solutions, although they accept the party’s policies,” he said.

Acting Democrat secretary-general Nipon Bunyamani gave a contrasting opinion, saying Thai Rak Thai’s rising popularity did not stem from its performance, but rather from its harder

and more progressive election campaign.

“In the last election, Thai Rak Thai wasn’t the main party contesting against the Democrats in the South. This time, the ruling party fielded candidates in every constituency,” he added.

“It’s the same with the Democrats – we are less popular in the Northeast because we don’t contest there seriously,” he said.

Sucheera Pinijparakarn

The Nation

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