One-party rule looms

Published on February 7, 2005

Bangkok voters make big contribution to Thai Rak Thai’s landslide win | Concern grows over checks and balances | Premier Thaksin says he’s ready to work with everyone

Prime Minister Thak-sin Shinawatra looked poised to establish an unprecedented one-party government in Thailand after voters - poor rural villagers and Bangkokians alike - handed his Thai Rak Thai a massive landslide victory in yesterday’s general election.

The resounding mandate has yet to be officially confirmed, as vote counting only began late yesterday evening. But exit polls showed that Thai Rak Thai could win 340-399 House of Representatives seats, thanks largely to a major sweep of Bangkok, where voters apparently snubbed the opposition Democrat Party’s desperate, last-ditch plea for the preservation of parliamentary checks and balances.

Thaksin confirmed that his party had won enough seats to allow his Thai Rak Thai party to rule alone, although he vowed to “consult” his bitter ally, Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa, before making a final decision. Chat Thai’s chances of remaining in the post-election government, however, will depend on parliamentary numbers, not its often stormy relations with the ruling party.

If Thai Rak Thai wins more than 350 seats, Thaksin hinted it would probably go ahead and form a single-party administration. “We think we have more than enough seats to form a one-party government,” he declared in a television interview a few hours after polling stations closed. “But due to political etiquette, I will have to speak with the Chat Thai leader first.”

The prime minister sought to allay fears that an overwhelming triumph allowing him to rule virtually unopposed for the next four years would send Thai politics backward. His staggering victory means the opposition will be unable to censure him, and if Thai Rak Thai ends up garnering more than 400 seats, the entire Cabinet would be immune to censure.

“Four years from now, my critics in academia and the opposition will know me better. I’m willing to open myself up to criticism. The race is over now, and it’s time we turned to each other and started working together,” he said.

It was a relatively restrained reaction from a man who has apparently won the strongest popular re-endorsement in Thai political history and is set to be the most powerful prime minister ever elected to lead the Kingdom. The victory was made even sweeter against the backdrop of what was the bumpiest year of his premiership, marked by an upsurge in the insurgency in the deep South, the bird-flu crisis, several corruption scandals and, last but not least, the tsunami disaster.

Some voters cast their ballots next to pictures of missing tsunami victims, while others had military guards protecting them from southern insurgents. But Thais apparently went to the polls with “continuity” and “decisiveness” in mind and put aside doubts about Thaksin’s moral integrity.

Thaksin said the results would “make the world confident that Thailand doesn’t have any political problems, so they’ll look at our policies for the next four years, and if they can trust our policies, then they can trust Thailand.”

He added: “Thai Rak Thai won because we worked very hard and were dedicated these past four years. We achieved many of our goals, particularly in fighting poverty, and this won the hearts of the public.”

The results leave the already-weak Democrats in tatters, and speculation grew yesterday as to the future of their leader, Banyat Bantadtan. Thaksin’s legion of critics was also stunned. Several were humbled. Some remaining voices of defiance warned that the staggering scale of his victory would further “blind” Thaksin to the principles of democracy and human rights. Many were resigned to the possibility that the fragile checks-and-balances mechanism would disintegrate completely.

Such concerns had been thought to be relatively more prevalent in Bangkok. But poll projections showed that voters in the capital may have not actually been that bothered by them.

Out of 37 House seats up for grabs in Bangkok, a Suan Dusit Poll has predicted that Thai Rak Thai would sweep all but two, while the party itself expected a more modest victory of 30.

Both projections were based on exit polls yesterday.

In the Suan Dusit projection, the Democrat and Chat Thai parties would win one House seat each.

The Thai Rak Thai survey predicted the ruling party would lose in constituencies 5, 8, 14, 20, 28, 30 and 32.

Chat Thai’s Janista Liewchalermwong was projected securing Constituency 14 while the other six were expected to go to Democrats. Those six are Korbsak Sabhavasu, Somkiat Chanthawanich, Tiwa Ngernyuang, Wilas Chantharapitak, Ong-art Klampaiboon and Suran Chantharapitak.

The TRT survey forecast that the party would win 376 House seats, 70 of which would come from the party-list system of proportional representation.

The poll also forecast 78 House seats for the Democrat Party, 41 for Chat Thai, and nine for Mahachon.

The predictions were close to results of a survey conducted by the Nation Group, which showed that the TRT would win 273 seats from constituencies, compared to 77 for the Democrats, 41 for Chat Thai, and nine for Mahachon.

A Nation-Thammasat poll predicted 67 party-list House seats for the TRT and the remaining 33 for the Democrats.

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