EDITORIAL : TRT cranks up the populism

Published on Oct 20, 2004

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra kicked off his Thai Rak Thai party's election campaign on Sunday, presenting a platform that is dominated by range of new populist policies. It was obvious from this presentation that the prime minister is expecting a repeat of the landslide victory he achieved in 2001.



The prime minister appears to believe that voters continue to buy his brand of political populism and are anxious to return him and Thai Rak Thai to power for another four years - hopefully with an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Thaksin's campaign strategy and ambitious vision for the legislature must be based on the assumption that Thai voters have not learned any valuable lessons during his first term in office, a tenure which, at best, could be said to have produced mixed results.

Or perhaps the idea is that voters will continue to turn a blind eye to the Thaksin administration's numerous shortcomings provided that it keeps the generous handouts flowing.

The prime minister may well be right in thinking that despite the increasing criticism of the widespread corruption, the repression of civil liberties and the breakdown in the rule of law over which his government has presided, not to mention his administration's mishandling of the violence in the Muslim-majority South and the bird-flu outbreaks, he can continue to count on the support of the masses.

Pandering to people's unprincipled wants and needs may persuade voters to return Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai to power in the upcoming general election, which must be held by early next year. But the expectation that Thaksin and his party will score an easy victory or muster an overwhelming majority in Parliament could turn out to be wishful thinking.

For a start, Thaksin's much-touted economic performance, the centre piece of which has been the Thaksinomics that were supposed to produce nothing short of an economic miracle, has been dampened by the administration's mishandling of bird-flu outbreaks and terrorism in the deep South.

The huge economic costs incurred by the government's bungled crisis management have already forced a downward adjustment in economic growth projections for this year, and the effects of these issues could continue to weigh down the country's economic performance for months, if not years, to come.

A closer look at the new range of populist policies unveiled by Thaksin on Sunday also reveals the lengths to which the prime minister seems willing to go to persuade voters to return Thai Rak Thai to power.

The promises include village-based microfinancing outlets, gift packs for all newborns, a re-launch of education reform, a revamp of the student loan system, contracted beef-cattle rearing to create jobs among rural households, price guarantees of Bt600 per tonne for sugarcane farmers, Bt1-trillion in infrastructure investment to relieve Bangkok's traffic congestion and a widening of access to electricity and tap water in rural communities, among other things.

The new populist policies are simply being piled on top of existing ones, such as the universal healthcare scheme, the Bt1-million village funds, a debt moratorium for farmers and other costly schemes.

Conspicuously absent from the ruling party's platform has been any sort of discussion of fiscal discipline, sources of funding and the huge impacts the populist policies from the first term have had in terms of long-term financial liability.

All that Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai party care about now is the ability to offer voters an extremely attractive ticket to vote for. Voters are being promised a lot of entitlements in return for voting Thai Rak Thai back into power without really having to work for them, like by having to pay higher taxes.

What remains unsaid is that the entitlements Prime Minister Thaksin has showered on the current generation of taxpayers will translate into mounting government debt that will eventually have to be paid for by future generations.

With only a few months to go before the general election, the biggest question for Thailand is whether voters will continue to be swayed by extravagant policies that could jeopardise the country's future.

Can civil society succeed in engaging voters in a rational discussion of political parties' policy platforms so they can make well-informed decisions when it is time to go to the polls?