EDITORAIL: Can reform survive Thaksin’s populism?

Published on Oct 19, 2004

If you lost count, never mind, because so did most newspapers. The promises that poured out of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s election campaign kick-off were so numerous that all dailies reported different figures yesterday.



Some reporters may have been too busy responding to his repeated “Applaud me, my fellow citizens” plea to keep track.

It was like a mobile-phone promotion – they confuse you so badly that you end up getting the least attractive offer, then blame yourself for not getting proper updates. As Thaksin carpet-bombed Thais with pledges of more tax breaks, cheap loans, welfare benefits, greater public transport, lower costs for long-distance phone calls, gifts for newborn babies, job training for virtually everyone who wants it, etc, even the most sceptical critic felt overwhelmed. Budget experts must still be scratching their heads and political scientists burning their textbooks.

The fascinating two hours of political marketing will increase the “black and white” polarity in Thailand where Thaksin is concerned. Supporters must be ready to buy the Thai Rak Thai Party’s campaign theme – that the country has been “fixed”, and now it’s time to build. They see him as a strong leader who delivers what he promised and thus should be given the same mandate to carry on. Critics must have seen Sunday evening as confirmation that Thaksin is so deep down in his own world that he wants to drag the whole country into it with him.

The Indoor Stadium event painted a rosy Thailand, where the economy is great, drugs are gone, the poor are cared for, wayward teenagers are well-supervised and rural kids grapple with their computers. The scripts were well crafted, as they drove home Thaksin’s perceived strong points and papered over key weaknesses with such excuses as time constraints and conspiracy by political enemies. The southern turbulence was barely mentioned. Bird flu was virtually non-existent. Corruption will easily be brought under control. The possibility of a grass-roots economic bubble is nothing to worry about. Banks are doing great. And the destruction of independent constitutional bodies like the Election Commission, the Constitution Court and the National Counter Corruption Commission never happened.

One newspaper rightly came up with a “Utopian package” headline. There was no word of caution to prepare Thais for new rainy days. Stock investors were told to be prepared for a 100-per-cent “rise”. (Listeners were too stunned at this point to hear if he was referring to the index or the market cap.)

On one hand, Thaksin sounded like a desperate man trying to woo back his girl. In business terms, it was a last throw of the dice by the owner of a seriously flawed product. The prime minister kicked off his campaign at a bad time, when his assets-concealment scandal is returning to haunt him. Claims that he tried to lobby the Constitution Court before it acquitted him in 2001 reinforce the impression that he leads an administration lacking in transparency, one that is alarmingly corrupt.

He has a great many things to hide or make people forget about, hence the increasing need to “compensate” sceptical voters. The more bad news concerning him, the more money will be spent to buy back support and the more promises of more of everything. Thaksin is getting caught in a vicious circle, and it’s interesting to see what will run out first – state money or public faith in him.

It will take an all-out effort for Thaksin to protect his status quo against the renewed clamouring for political reform. He won his first showdown with the spirit of reform when the Constitution Court acquitted him three years ago. Despite his highly questionable political and business practices, reformists gave way, simply because he had just scored a landslide election triumph. The rationale behind the Constitution Court acquittal – “There was no alternative to Thaksin” – defied advocates of urgent, immediate reform who insisted that Thailand first needed transparent politics with good checks and balances, then everything else would follow. In ushering in Thaksin, Thailand relaxed its new-found principles, and the term “honest mistake” became a sad excuse for reverting to the old kind of politics.

After almost four years of Thaksin, Thais find themselves at yet another crossroads. Will the country tolerate what he has taken away after measuring what he has done and is promising to do? It’s hard to tell. Only one thing is clear – Thaksin is treating voters like mobile-phone clients whom he knows can’t easily change brands if new promotions keep coming.

Tulsathit Taptim is managing editor of The Nation.