THAI TALK: Think the unthinkable: TRT as opposition

Published on December 02, 2004

Some highly creative minds in the world of politics have suggested to me that perhaps it’s time for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai Party to ponder the imponderable: Serve the country by volunteering to become the country’s major opposition party after the general election due by the middle of February.

Of course, it’s a crazy idea. Naturally, it’s as far-fetched as suggesting that the Democrat Party should prepare itself to return to government after February. But thinking the unthinkable may help a lot of the frustrated voters in this country resolve a key dilemma: they like Thaksin’s quick mind and business instincts, but they are beginning to seriously worry that his arrogance and hubris could lead the country into a greed-driven, amoral mess.

I don’t think it will ever materialise. But some very original thinkers in the political world have floated the idea that the country would benefit greatly if Thaksin were “the strongest opposition leader Thailand has ever known”.

He has a sharp mind. He is a formidable strategist. His political rhetoric has improved tremendously during the four years as the country’s “Super-CEO”. And most important of all, he knows where the flaws of the current government’s popular policies lie. As opposition leader, he could challenge the new government in every aspect. As premier, he has impressed all of us with his unchallengeable confidence. “I know everything I should do.” If he was to become opposition leader, he could take on any prime minister with the unmistakable statement: “I know everything that the prime minister shouldn’t do.”

Nobody is naive enough to even suggest that this scenario will materialise. But now that he has proved himself a better prime minister than the main opposition leader Banyat Bantadtan of the Democrat Party, Thaksin may want to set another record: He could beat anybody in this country as the most effective opposition leader.

This, after all, is a country in which it is generally believed that becoming a strong premier is a relatively easier task than convincing the electorate you could become a strong and effective opposition leader. Thaksin could change forever the old thinking, the “thinking within the box” so evident in Thai military circles. Once he proves that he could be both an unbeatable prime minister and a highly regarded opposition leader, he won’t go down in history as simply a shrewd and resourceful politician. He will be remembered as a true statesman, a real hero who doesn’t need absolute political power to serve the country.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not at all suggesting that Thai Rak Thai will be beaten in the next election. I am even ready to believe that if Thaksin wants it badly enough, his party will win 499 of the 500 seats in the House. But he is no fool. Despite what his overzealous underlings have been telling him, Thaksin realises that once he goes higher than he is now, he will only be precipitating his own defeat. The countdown to his ungraceful downfall will begin on the very day he embarks on his second term with such a frightening majority.

This, however, has nothing to do with the proposed coalition of the Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon parties to form the next government. Any pundit worth his salt would tell you that such a grouping is nothing more than a pipe dream - a kite-flying exercise by the new Mahachon Party to boost its own party members’ morale.

This balloon has been floated by Mahachon’s leaders, who claim they could grab 250 seats in the House - or half the total - giving them the mandate to edge Thai Rak Thai into the opposition camp. They also speculate that Thai Rak Thai’s in-house tracking polls suggest that the best Thaksin’s camp could do in the next election is the other half of the cake.

But the fact that the Super-CEO hasn’t made any mention recently of the 400-plus seats he has always wanted to see filled by Thai Rak Thai members in the next election doesn’t signify any setback. He will win and will probably win big because he has the means and determination to do it. And it’s the “means” that counts much, much more than the “determination”.

It is exactly because things will happen as expected that some bright and creative political minds are saying that Thaksin may enjoy being an opposition leader for a change.

Why? They say Thaksin will soon get bored with being a leader with no real intellectual challenges. He has tried hard to get his ministers to treat him as their equal. He has spurred them to challenge his every decision because he realises that if he only has “yes men” around him, he could make some really bad decisions, plunging the country into real trouble. But who in his Cabinet or inner circle could really engage in the sort of mental sparring that any real leader genuinely needs to pursue his lifelong goals?

I don’t think this will happen. But those creative minds on both sides of the political arena insist that this isn’t such a wild idea if you take the public mood into account. I tell them it’s only wishful thinking.

But then again, I have been dead wrong before.

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

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