It’s 300 seats or bust for Thai Rak Thai Analysis: Anything less and Thaksin could see the defection of disgruntled party members

No matter how many political parties participate in the upcoming national election, the choice for prime minister – whether voters like it or not – is limited to the chiefs of the four leading parties.

They are Thai Rak Thai’s Thaksin Shinawatra, Democrats’ Banyat Bantadtan, Mahachon’s Anek Laothamatas and Chat Thai’s Banharn Silapa-archa.

Who will rule post-election Thailand, however, depends on only one factor – will the Thai Rak Thai win a landslide by grabbing at least 300 of 500 MP seats up for grabs?

If the ruling party reaches its target, Thaksin would reign for another four years. If it fails, the opportunity would most likely go to either Banyat or Anek.

The notion of Thaksin sitting in the PM’s chair for another term is based on the very plausible scenario that his party will win another overwhelming victory. It will only play out if Thaksin succeeds in turning his crisis of declining popularity into a golden opportunity by moulding an image of himself as a hero after convincing the masses to fold origami birds in a massive peace overture.

The Constitution requires all 500 MPs to vote for the prime minister in the first House session after the election. Thaksin knows that winning more than a majority of the House seats alone is not enough to ensure his return.

His arrogant silencing of critical voices and making most important decisions himself for nearly four years has rankled some of the party’s leading factions. This includes old-guard Snoh Thienthong and Pinit Jarusombat and his Chat Thai coalition partners.

If the ruling party only wins a few seats more than the majority, it would give some of the peeved and suppressed party members a chance for revenge.

The only way to punish Thaksin would be for them to join their old allies in a coalition of Thai Rak Thai rivals and vote for their candidate for prime minister. That could be Banyat or Anek.

Hence, Thaksin has to ensure that his party wins at least 300 seats to reduce the chance of betrayal and to paralyse the opposition’s efforts to hold a censure debate against him.

But if Thai Rak Thai won less than half the House seats, the Democrats, Mahachon and Chat Thai would surely form a coalition government and leave Thaksin and his party on the sidelines.

If the Democrats win more seats than their coalition allies, they would elect Banyat to rule the country. But he lacks popularity among middle-class voters, who have substantial influence over the stability and survival of the government.

In this case, former academic Anek might be a better choice for a post-Thaksin coalition to gain good will from the public, which a new government would need to extend its longevity. Of course there is another matter – Anek’s Mahachon Party has fewer MPs than the Democrats.

Anek would need to tap his old ally Pradit Pataraprasith, the Democrats’ secretary-general, to lobby deputy leader Abhisit Vejjajiva’s faction to vote for the Mahachon leader.

Abhisit has insisted for months his party would not support Anek in any circumstance.

The same words have never come from Banyat.

One should keep in mind that anything can happen in Thai politics. So Anek still has a chance.

Finally, the doors seem all but closed for 72-year-old Banharn to re-take the helm of the country.

He would most likely join the winning party to form the government.

No bookmakers are wasting their time setting odds on him. Only a big political accident would bring him back, which is beyond one’s imagination at the time being.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation