Ruling camp set to make gains despite trouble spots

Published on December 20, 2004

Nation Group forecast has TRT ahead in 257 constituencies, up from 243 in 2001

Thai Rak Thai may lose certain strongholds in the forthcoming election but the ruling party is still likely to win more constituencies than in the election of 2001, when it won 243 seats.

According to the Nation Group’s election forecast, if the election were held today, Thai Rak Thai would win 257 constituency seats from a total of 400.

The Democrats would win 85, Chat Thai 40, and Mahachon only 18.

Thai Rak Thai would still win the majority of seats in Bangkok constituencies despite its decline in popularity, as the Democrats are still struggling to find winning policies and candidates.

The ruling party has the potential to win 26 seats in the capital, with the remaining 11 going to the Democrats. The competition between the two parties is likely to leave Chat Thai and Mahachon without any seats in the capital’s 37 constituencies.

Nation Group reporters and political academics across the country analysed election sentiment constituency by constituency last week, taking into account local attitudes, candidates’ backgrounds and their voter bases as well as each party’s situation in the polls.

In the capital the current factor that seems to prevent the opposition party from gaining seats are its candidates.

The Democrats new candidates, apart from those with famous families and backgrounds, are still not shining brightly enough to attract votes by themselves and depend significantly on the party’s image.

In fact the Democrats only chance to win a majority in the capital relies on a severe drop in Thai Rak Thai’s popularity between now and election day.

On the other hand, Thai Rak Thai – with support from maverick Chalerm Yoobumrung – who has a great deal of support in Thon Buri constituencies, is likely to win a majority in the capital, despite many observers saying that the Thai Rak Thai government is in decline.

In the central region, Chat Thai is likely to win up to 20 constituencies, as it still has a strong following within several provinces.

These include Suphan Buri’s six constituencies as well as Angthong’s and Chanthaburi’s where the former Democrat Komkhai Pollabutre is now running as a Chat Thai candi- date.

Looking North, although Thai Rak Thai has said it expects to win over 70 constituencies from a total of 76, observers now say the ruling party is more likely to gain around 53 seats.

Chiang Mai Democrat candidate Kinkan na Chiang Mai is likely to win the seat in constituency 4 and Democrat MP Yongyuth Suwapab should maintain his seat in constituency 9.

Mahachon has a high chance of winning in constituencies 6 and 8 due to its candidates’ strong backgrounds here.

In Chiang Rai, predictions suggest that Chat Thai stands a high chance of winning seats while the Thai Rak Thai is unlikely to gain any.

Thai Rak Thai should still win by a landslide in the Northeast though, as the party has the advantages of high-profile candidates and its ever-popular image and policies.

And despite its Buri Ram MPs moving to the ruling party, Chat Thai are likely to come second in this, the country’s largest region, as the party also has many well-known candidates and has focussed its strategies on winning these constituencies.

Moving to the South, the Democrats are likely to win 41 constituencies from a total of 54, leaving 13 constituencies to the ruling Thai Rak Thai.

In the southernmost provinces, Thai Rak Thai has a high chance of losing seats to the Democrats due to recent events, especially in the provinces of Pattani and Narathiwat.

The Nation

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