Burma tests its last brinksmanship

For the first time in the past few weeks since 1988, Burma has been fighting against the international community's imposed isolation and sanctions in the most concrete ways.

As the debates continues to rage on over its pros and cons, the semi-civilian government in Nayphidaw apparently knows exactly what to do in its last brinksmanship. Whether it will succeed remains to be seen.

All roads seem to lead to the flurries of activities in Burma's new capital these days. The headline news continues to zero in on the dynamism of meetings and closed door discussions between Dawn Aung San Suu Kyi with top-level Burmese officials including President Thein Sein, Labor and Social Welfare Minister Aung Kyi and other senior officials. At least for now, both sides have transmitted positive messages that they are tangoing in tandem. The other day Suu Kyi reaffirmed that Burma wants change. More activities are on the pipeline designed to increase mutual confidence among all stakeholders and render the current government better creditability and images, particularly geared toward the US, EU and the UN. Closer to home, it wants to gain more trust from Asean.

Earlier Nayphidaw revealed for the first time it would run a budget deficit of 3.2 billion dollars. In the future Burma needs international loans from various lending institutions to balance budget and draw up national development strategies. To get that level of concession, Burma has to do more with release of political prisoners, strong commitment to nuclear non-proliferation efforts and peaceful coexistence with minorities. If need be, the much anticipated meeting with the elusive Burmese strong man, Gen Than Shwe and the lady would certainly come about. Even that, there is no guarantee Burma would get everything. The ongoing push to establish an international commission on inquiry related to the junta leaders' human rights records is also gaining momentum.

It is an open secret that President Thein Sein wants badly the 2014 Asean chair. Back in 1997, when Burma was admitted as members, it was done hurriedly with a singular belief held by the Asean leaders, which subsequently proved wrong, that it would halt China's southward movement. Now, it is more complicated as Asean has the charter and more international recognition. Liked Gen Than Shwe, President Thein Sein understands the Asean politics well. To show he has some control over the day-to-day governance, he met with Suu Kyi and left her alone without harassment. That has created temporary positive vibration among the Burmese in exile and international community.

To outsiders at least for now, it shows that Thein Sein is winning over his rival, the hardliner Vice President Thin Aung Minh Oo. Some of the ongoing reforms and dialogue with the oppositions and soon with the ethnic groups points to Thein Sein political ascension and influence within the party and aboard. His nemesis opposes the above platforms. Such trends would be sustained for a while to yield the much-needed results - further weakening the existing sanctions and drive a wedge against the Western sanctions.

Over the weekend, United Nations Human Rights Special Rapporteur, Tomas Ojea Quintana completed his five-day trip with good cooperation from the officials on issue of human rights. He pointed out that serious human rights remain although positive steps have been taken by the authorities. Any UN-related activities would receive good response from Nayphidaw, as the UN General Assembly is scheduled to be opened during the second week of September. Burma will make use of this venue--its main battleground for two decades. The UNGA usually provides an excellent venue for member countries to show off progress at home fronts. In this connection, the Asean foreign ministers are scheduled to meet informally on 27 September during their UNGA appearances. On the side-line, they will also meet the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon who has repeatedly urged Burma to broaden and deepen reform efforts. Therefore, in the next four weeks, extensive engagements and commitment are to be expected. Burma can kill several birds with one bullet, if it can address all at once issues raised by Asean and the UN.

Unmistakably, this time the world will take the clues from Suu Kyi as she still is the most credible person to legitimize Nayphidaw. Up until now, she has said all the right things about the Thein Sein administration. Any negative comment from her could quickly dilute the country's standing. However, without a satisfactory progress report at the New York meeting, it would be tough for Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa to make a recommendation to their leaders for a green light on the 2914 chair.One caveat is in order, since Burma in the past two decades has cheated so many times and got away scotch free. The country has very low creditability. The biggest cheat was the May election of 1990, when the National League of Democracy won with a landslide. Asean was left dumb-folded many years after former prime minister Khint Nyunt promised further reform and release of Suu Kyi during the Asean Summit in December 2003 in Phnom Penh which did not materialize. It would surprise nobody if the Thein Sein government is dishonest. He could have Suu Kyi arrested and curtailed her activities and increased attacks on opposition or the minorities again that can seriously undermine its own effort to get the last jigsaw of legitimacy in place.

That explains why Nayphidaw has decided to play the Asean and international charm offensives. Whether it wins the do or die game will depend on the overall body politics and how far the current administration can call the shot. For instance, if Thein Sein decides to include Suu Kyi, in whatever capacity, in the official Burmese delegation to attend the upcoming Bali Summit, there is a good chance that Burma will have a win-win situation. For one thing, it shows the lady's willingness to help the administration gain recognition. Vice versa, Nayphidaw can triumphantly claim its cooperative spirit with her. Most importantly, she will be able to meet with other leaders including US President Barrack Obama, who plans to meet with the Asean leaders as part of the 3rd Asean-US Leader Meeting. If such meeting takes place, Obama can give a positive spin on Burma. Otherwise, it would be a big blow to Asean if the decision to grant the chair is announced at the summit. (Malaysia has notified Asean that it would host the 2015 chair to preside over the first year of Asean Community while Laos has opted for 2016).

At this juncture, granted fast changing global politics and strategic landscape, any positive transformation, however small and with all mishaps of the past, would be received with high levels of accolades. Burma can seize this opportunity and forever turn the tide against it.