Thaksin's visa could be Japan's big mistake

Thailand's long-time friend and ally is putting its diplomatic credibility at risk by pandering to the request of the new foreign minister

Impeachment threats looming over Foreign Minister Surapong Towichukchaikul have confirmed that the decision by Japan to allow the fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra to visit Tokyo next week harbour some unpredictable consequences. The decision is quite uncharacteristic of Japan, which, all along, has been pursuing a straightforward policy toward Thailand without any misstep. Thaksin has been granted a visa at the request of the Thai government, which is strongly linked to him, and that could be a lapse in Japan's diplomatic decision-making.

If the visa was granted based on how the political wind blows in Thailand, Japan may find itself stuck in a vicious cycle. Thaksin won power, then lost it, and now is trying to regain it after his political party won the election. Whether he succeeds in retaking power or not, the court verdict against him stays.

In other words, although the Pheu Thai Party won the election on July 3 and is now governing Thailand, it does not mean that Thaksin has immediately become an innocent man. He has yet to serve his jail sentence and no amnesty has been put in effect to absolve him.

Former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was right in saying that any Thai who is helping Thaksin could be implicated in the future. The Democrats have launched an impeachment move against Surapong, who they say, in his capacity as foreign minister, is supposed to go after a fugitive if that person's overseas whereabouts become clear - not aid his or her travel. Surapong may soon be facing charges of negligence or malfeasance.

While Japan has the right to grant or deny entry for foreign passport-holders, it has been disclosed through Japan's own cabinet secretariat that Tokyo was granting the visa as requested by the Yingluck government with Surapong as foreign minister. The new foreign minister's first "accomplishment" has apparently been scored in bringing pressure to bear on Japan regarding the visa. He left no room for us to understand otherwise. All indications are that he did it at the behest of Thaksin. That alone has clouded the future of Thai foreign policy. When a personal agenda becomes a national agenda, nobody can be really optimistic.

Thaksin has been convicted and sentenced to a two-year imprisonment term, charged with political malfeasance in connection with the Ratchadapisek land scandal. His supporters have been trying to describe the case as "political". Others view it as a corruption case, pure and simple. The fact that the plot of land his ex-wife bought (and which was seized by the state after the coup that ousted Thaksin) has now fetched Bt1billion more than when she purchased it has lent weight to the laws prohibiting such purchases by people in power.

To say that he wanted to visit Fukushima with donations and also give a lecture is not a sufficient reason. Giving him a visa despite his conviction by a Thai court puts Japan's diplomatic creditability at risk. Thailand and Japan have maintained excellent relations through the rough and tumble of world affairs. Since the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan, the Thai people have shown great sympathy and donated over one million dollars in cash and in kind to the Japanese victims. Likewise, Japan often helps Thailand in our times of need.

Obviously, Japan could argue its decision was based on the new government's request. To preserve good ties with Thailand under the Yingluck government, Japan has been put in a dilemma. It remains to be seen how other countries will react to similar requests. Major countries such as the US, China, and those in Europe will be included in future destinations as Thaksin challenges the country's legal system. If more and more agree to such requests, it will achieve his primary objective in discrediting the decision to convict him. It's a Thaksin game being played out on the world stage for his domestic interests.

Absurdly, the Foreign Ministry has become the first to do the dirty work under the new government. The visa issue must have generated a great deal of confusion within the diplomatic community, and further complicates all negotiations on Thai foreign policy. It is clear that Surapong does not care about the big picture that much, but that doesn't mean Japan should play along to his tune.