Expert warns of bird flu pandemic

A health expert has warned of a potential bird flu pandemic after noting mutations in the H5N1 influenza virus that allow it to survive longer.

Public Health Ministry senior health expert Dr Tawee Chotpitayasunondh said an avian flu pandemic could return in the near future, citing a report from 2009 that showed the H5N1 virus had mutated and could live for longer periods in animals' bodies.

"A report found changes in the structure of the H5N1 virus that was spreading in Indonesia," he said. "These changes have allowed the virus to develop so that it can live in animals' bodies for longer periods but causes less mortality than the original virus," he said.

He was speaking at a national academic conference entitled "Epidemiology in the Challenge of Emerging Global Health Threats" organised by the Public Health Ministry's Disease Control Department.

"These changes also allow more time for the virus to establish itself and live in host bodies. It does not kill the host body, it just makes it sick. This means it will have more time to spread itself to other hosts," he said.

"That would be the scariest thing in the near future," he added.

Over the past month, the World Health Organisation reported five cases of H5N1 virus infection in Egypt and one confirmed case of human infection in Cambodia.

The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has also announced a confirmed case of human H5N1 infection.

Thailand has reported 25 confirmed cases of human infection and 17 deaths since 2004. But over the past two years there have been no reports of human infection or deaths in the country.

However, Tawee said public health officers should tighten surveillance systems for bird flu and the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus. They should also closely monitor cases of human infection and keep an eye on mysterious deaths of livestock.

"If we cannot protect urban areas from the spread of the bird flu virus and 2009 influenza A(H1N1), it means we face disaster," he said.