Red-shirt resurgence looks nightmarish for Abhisit

The red shirts flexed their muscles again on Sunday at Ratchaprasong intersection, the scene of arson and other crimes seven months ago, when more than 10,000 people attended an anti-government rally. There was no violence, just some pushing and shoving with the police who were providing security, before they red shirts completely occupied the area.

This was another embarrassing reminder for the Abhisit government that the red shirts remain a power to reckon with, like it or not, and that from now on they intend to be more forceful with a reconnected financial lifeline to their patron, fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra.

The disgraced politician in self-imposed exile is no longer vague or ambiguous about his role. He is the main sponsor of the red-shirt movement. During his phone-in to Pheu Thai Party MPs, Thaksin sternly instructed them to take care of the red-shirts financially, and they can expect further payments from him.

What does the government think about such a signal? Probably nothing when it comes to the ways and means in which the Democrats deal with the red shirts - with little imagination or resources. This has resulted in fiasco and mayhem for two years in a row. The second time, Abhisit had to seek protection inside a military barracks.

But one might still wonder why the government is so strange and different. The nature of most politicians is to have a strong sense of self-preservation and survival, and to do whatever is needed to save one's necks. A limited imagination might be a main flaw, but there should be no lack of guts.

Let's examine the laughable predicament of the government. All along, it has suffered from shortcomings and a lack of courage. Since the riots and arson in the city on May 19, the government has slipped back into complacency, harbouring the view that the red shirts no longer have any venom. No offensive measures are necessary, or so the government believes.

It has been wrong all along, as we have seen. Not only that, the red shirts are still full of perseverance. They are bolder in their regained strength and will put the government on the defensive. The Abhisit administration must come up with effective counter-measures to revive public confidence and show that it is competently in charge. The government refuses to pursue the arrests of fleeing red-shirt leaders still hiding in Cambodia under the patronage of Hun Sen, whose mercurial and crafty skills keep the Abhisit team at bay in most circumstances.

The government's view of Thaksin's current status and its lack of eagerness to seek his arrest under extradition arrangements with foreign countries, so that he can serve his two-year jail term and stand trial on other criminal charges, is almost pathetic.

Thaksin is no longer a Thai citizen. He has become a Montenegrin, holding the passport of the small country that was once part of Yugoslavia. With that passport, he has more room to manoeuvre and can travel to more countries than before.

Under Thai law, local political parties cannot accept any kind of help, in cash or in kind, from foreign citizens. Any violation is punishable by dissolution of the party. Thaksin, as a Montenegrin, is fomenting unrest in Thailand though his financial handouts to the red shirts, as uttered through his own mouth.

Viewing the government in such a pathetic condition, Thaksin is expected to go all out again in a bid to regain political power and eventual absolution for his crimes, convicted or otherwise. Now that holding state power is the only way to recover what he has lost, the fugitive will spare nothing to fulfil his desire. Surely he still has plentiful financial resources to fight another political war, violent or otherwise.

Now that the red shirts have vowed to stage rallies on the 10th and 19th of every month, at Ratchaprasong and other key symbolic sites, the public can feel concern about traffic trouble and the risk of more violence and total chaos.

The rallies are intended to pressure the government to release the red-shirt ringleaders now in detention, and to call for an early general election. It is no longer a secret that the red shirts and Pheu Thai are one under the command of Thaksin, who has been busy with activities to weaken the government through his networks of foreign and local cronies.

The government might still rely on the armed forces, chiefly the Army, but with a false sense of security. It has never occurred to Abhisit and his team that their soft handling of the red shirts has caused two political crises, two years in a row, without accountability.

If this complacency and lack of imagination persists, it will not be a surprise if mayhem recurs. The government may indulge in new populist policies to win more seats in the election. But overall, signs of defeat will be clearer in its evident weakness.