Tension in political circles seems to be intensifying as the court prepares to issue a verdict on former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's assets case later this month.
In fact, some political observers believe that if the situation gets out of hand, there could be one of the following scenarios in Thailand:
Firstly, the Democrat-led government could employ its authority and all mechanisms in accordance with the legal framework to handle the situation.
Secondly, things could go beyond control, and the military could be asked to step in.
And lastly, there is the least-wanted scenario - a military coup.
However, things really depend on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's abilities - if he can control the situation by just using the legal mechanisms at hand, he would prove that he is a true leader.
At present, Abhisit is trying to maintain order by using his mandate and authority. As long as the government keeps using this mechanism, the public can accept it because it knows this is the best solution.
The government has, so far, ordered some 20,000 soldiers to be deployed in 38 provinces ahead of the verdict on Thaksin's asset-seizure case.
According to government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn, about 200 checkpoints would be set up in the capital and its outskirts, where about 5,000 troops or 54 companies will be based, particularly at "points of entry and exit", key state agencies and transport networks.
Though these measures may appear to be an overreaction to some, they could be effective in preventing clashes.
On January 26, the Cabinet approved a resolution that military assistance could be sought to help the police keep order if political clashes are expected. Earlier, if the police needed military help, the Cabinet had to impose the Internal Security Act. However, this procedure sometimes took too long to put in place and could be quite ineffective in handling situations like, for instance, last year's Songkran mayhem.
But if the situation goes beyond Abhisit's control, it is likely that the military would have to step in. If the ball is in the military's court, then it would have to be handled by the key man - deputy army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, the likely successor for the army chief's post in October.
Prayuth is known as the incumbent army chief General Anupong Paochinda's man. He has followed Anupong very closely, and will probably do what his boss would do - keep law and order and keep away from a coup.
Yet, in the past, Anupong was criticised for being too reluctant to help control the situation, which upset some hardliners in the political establishment, who wanted the army chief to be harsher with the red shirts.
An insider revealed yesterday that attempts were being made to pull Prayuth away from Anupong, by using the army chief's post as an incentive. Apparently, Prayuth - who would retire in 2014 - has been told that if he keeps following his boss, he will have to forego the top post. In fact, a new name has emerged for the post -Army chief-of-staff General Piroon Paewpolsong.
Looking back in history, one realises that coups in Thailand depend very much on who has the top army post. The 1991 and 2006 coups were successful because they were led by the army chief. The 1980s coups failed because junior officers led them.
So, in other words, the future of Thai politics lies in the hands of whoever takes over a Army chief.
