Concern is mounting among analysts and investors over the possibility of telecom concessions being reversed retroactively if the Supreme Court rules against Thaksin Shinawatra in the Bt76-billion assets-seizure case.
However, telecom analyst David Beller said in a report: "Logically, we don't expect the court to rescind the contract amendment, as Thaksin was not the sole beneficiary of the change - discounts were passed on to customers as part of the agreement.
"However, Thailand's political establishment may want to shift value from private operators to state enterprises soon, so we do not completely rule out a reversal of the amendment as an immediate or subsequent event."
The Supreme Court is scheduled to hand down its verdict in the assets-seizure case on February 26. Some of the key elements of the ruling are whether the Thaksin government committed policy corruption by changing the telecom concessions to favour Shin Corp, including subsidiaries Advanced Info Service (AIS) and Thaicom, the latter formerly known as Shin Satellite.
At present, AIS shares 20 per cent of its prepaid mobile-phone revenue with TOT as the result of a concession amendment made during the Thaksin administration to lower the tariff from 25 per cent in 2001.
"Should the decision [to rescind] be retroactive, AIS may be forced to pay as much as B19 billion [B6.40 per share]," Beller added.
Chaiyaporn Nompitakcharoen of Bualuang Securities said the court's ruling would not likely affect the concessions of either AIS or Thaicom, since the two companies were not violating any laws in their business operations.
"I don't expect the law to be reversed retroactively," he said.
Another local broker said if the telecom concessions were to be amended in line with the court's ruling, then not only would AIS be affected, but also all telecom companies.
Pichai Lertsupongkit of Thanachart Securities said if the court ruled against Thaksin, then the next step would be to examine which parts of the case were in violation of the law, because they involved amendments to mobile-phone concessions, excise duty and satellite concessions.
"I'm not sure whether it would be legally possible to reverse the concessions," he said.
Asked whether the ruling would have any effect on AIS's concessions or those of other telecom companies, Thailand Development Research Institute vice president Somkiat Tangkitvanit said he had not yet studied the matter.
But he said government agencies should come up with possible scenarios for when the verdict is delivered.
Temasek Holdings corporate-affairs director Mark Lee declined to answer an e-mail request for comment from The Nation.
Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings, both under Temasek, own a combined 97 per cent of shares in Shin, which is AIS's parent.
