Questions cloud rationale behind Army's recent moves

Take the unprecedented gathering of Army rank and file purportedly to support Army chief Anupong Paochinda in the face of growing defiance from "rogue" officer Khattiya Sawasdipol.

Modest analysts would not go beyond describing it as an indirect warning to Thaksin Shinawatra in case he's plotting something nasty. "We are still united, so back off!!!" was the key message to Thaksin in this school of thought.

The other camp of analysts see an unmistakable prelude to a coup. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is fast losing it, goes this group's theory. He has all but lost the support and trust of the coalition allies and his political downfall is looming, which can only lead to the resurgence of Thaksin's political party unless "something" is done.

The doom merchants also linked the Army's unusual show of force to the upcoming Supreme Court verdict on Thaksin's Bt76-billion frozen assets.

So now we have three main theories concerning the military gatherings. It could be a ridiculous overreaction to Khattiya's equally ridiculous belligerence, or an indirect warning to Thaksin (and probably the rebellious coalition allies), or a straightforward overture to a coup.

Coup non-believers argued that Abhisit has always received the military's strong backing, that his popularity is in fact on the rise, and that it's too weird to launch an anti-Thaksin coup that would in effect put away the only man who can challenge Thaksin's political charisma.

Abhisit's "growing" political strength has somehow become a buzz. Even some sources among the restless allies have admitted that it could be a mistake to defect from the coalition right now. The allies' push for a new election system has failed to win public support because the two biggest parties - the Democrat and Pheu Thai - are against it, and if they force Abhisit to dissolve the House now, the allies will be the biggest losers.

Coup believers said the constitutional amendment push was a smokescreen. Banharn Silapa-archa, they said, didn't want an "easier" election system that much. His real intention, allegedly, was to create political turmoil at all costs because his heart had been won back by Thaksin. And maybe it's more than just a coincidence that Army officers chose to launch their "discipline" campaign around the country a couple of days after Banharn threatened full-scale parliamentary revolt.

And who says it will be a "friendly coup" against Abhisit, one that was actually intended to keep Thaksin at bay? It can be a raw, old-fashioned power grab designed to centralise power back to the military. In other words, the military is the wolf bearing down on the sheep that is the Thai politicians.

The coup-or-no-coup debate will boil down to the key question of what can be used as a pretext if the wolf decides to eat the sheep. Every coup requires a good pretext, no matter how primitive the ambitions of the potential coup-makers are. So, unless the Abhisit government fails to contain a fast-spreading street violence, or is rocked by a massive scandal, anyone plotting a coup will struggle to find a good explanation.

If you want an ulitmate "yes" or "no" to the question whether a coup can happen, here's my take: So many questions are still up in the air. By whom? Against whom? On what grounds? To help Thaksin? To pre-empt possible return of his assets? To destroy the reds? To destroy the yellows? To destroy them both and risk the birth of a united front against the military?

I don't know any of the answers.

Tulsat@hotmail.com

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