• 
• 
• 

I said in this column a week ago that Thaksin has practically set up a de facto government in exile. He cannot make it official yet due to the fact that no civilised country will recognise his struggle, which may include a political wing and a fighting force. They must be well funded, of course.

His announcement was made to a rally of red shirts at a golf course in Chanthaburi province owned by a group of bankers and businessmen. It was just another pep talk to rouse the morale of the crowd there, which numbered less than 3,000, showing a quick dwindling of followers.

Thaksin's mix of tirade and campaign talk also revealed his high spirits - delusion of grandeur, self deception or otherwise. It was enough to draw cheers from the red shirts, who believe that the fugitive still commands vast financial resources to create trouble for the Abhisit government.

It was not clear where he spoke from during the video link. If the location was Dubai, then he may face more trouble because the local authorities there do not want him to use the state as a base for political campaigns. The Thai Foreign Ministry is trying to wrap up an extradition agreement with the United Arab Emirates, which will eventually prevent Thaksin from staying there.

With or without a coup, Thaksin could form a government in exile if he does not care about justification and whether it even makes sense. It should have dawned on him that such action was possible immediately after he was toppled by the coup in 2006. Following that, he was able to set up two nominee governments, both of which ended in disgrace.

The rationale to set up a government in exile has been made to create new hope for the red shirts and his followers. At the same time, it also gives those people a golden opportunity to make Thaksin part with more of his wealth through campaign funding and pestering of those perceived as political adversaries preventing him regaining power.

The night he ranted on the video link, likely from Cambodia, Thaksin was like a vampire smelling fresh blood. With the style of a political demagogue, he tried again to convince the red shirts that he is a political victim. But people with good sense know well that he is a big-time crook using political power and influence to amass wealth with impunity.

It has never occurred to him that if he were a righteous and honest politician, he would have been welcomed with grace by civilised countries. As of now, he can only travel to limited destinations, mainly the Middle East and African countries that need his money and empty promises.

Is there still a chance of another coup? Most people believe that this is a thing of the past and that sensible military generals know better that staging a coup and preserving power are entirely different matters.

But a coup inspired by greed and Thaksin's money, with the promise of power, can never be ruled out. There are hot-headed generals who still believe they can get away with such globally condemned practices, even if for a "good cause", like disposing of a corrupt dictator, military or civilian.

Political scheming by self-serving vested interests, similar to the attempts by those banned by the Constitutional Court from active politics, could also be used as a pretext for a coup to prevent possible chaos and anarchy. Thaksin would love something like this to happen so that there could be an intervention by the palace and an eventual amnesty for all parties in conflict.

Let's see how the ongoing attempt to amend the charter against public opposition will develop, together with the stand of the Democrat Party, which remains ambiguous. All these murky prospects also depend on how the House votes on this issue, if there is going to be one, and in addition the expected no-confidence debate by the opposition. There could be a double-cross by politicians who can never be trusted over matters of public interest.

As of now, Thaksin has to be content with his dream to regain power, but time is running out. If he is reckless again with a new scheme for political violence, the eventual nightmare will be the consequences he has to bear somewhere far away from his country of birth.