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The year 2009 ended on a sour note for the coalition government, and it has only itself to blame. Exposure of suspected irregularities in the Thai Khemkhaeng (TKK) scheme on the part of the Public Health Ministry only confirms the truth of what most in the government have declined to accept: the coalition is its own worst enemy. Thaksin Shinawatra, Hun Sen or the red shirts can create a nuisance, but the real destabilising factor is the deeds of those in power.

The resignation of Witthaya Kaewparadai as public health minister will not paper over anything. At best, it shows how vulnerable his ministry has been to this kind of scandal. Five years ago, Witthaya's predecessor, Rakkiat Sukthana, became the first-ever Cabinet member to be jailed, following a scandal that had marked similarities to the one making headlines today. Despite all of the warning signs, the government - particularly the Public Health Ministry - did nothing to stop it.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is said to be furious and reportedly gave his Cabinet a stern warning in the wake of the charges against the ministry. His mood is understandable, given that his critics have taunted the stimulus programme from day one as the "ground zero of corruption". What happened at the ministry, therefore, was taken as a direct insult to his leadership. Having gained a higher public-approval rating than any Cabinet member, Abhisit now faces a level of scrutiny that will determine not only his popularity, but also his ultimate survival.

Whenever the red shirts run amok, the government can always fall back on the Internal Security Act, which proved effective in preventing political trouble in the second half of last year following the Songkran turbulence. And Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, whenever he launches a verbal tirade against the Bangkok government, helps it gain sympathy among the Thai public. Thaksin's phone-ins, meanwhile, have attracted scant attention beyond the red-shirt movement.

Abhisit's real enemy is corruption. If he can fight it, his immunity to the other threats will get stronger. But if he allows graft to fester, the other threats will become more menacing.

Thus, the TKK scandal is very bad news, and the government's condition could deteriorate to critical very quickly, assuming it is not already there. Several potentially explosive issues are poised to detonate in quick succession after the New Year holiday: the Supreme Court will issue a verdict on Thaksin's Bt76 billion in frozen assets; the Election Commission will decide whether to call for dissolution of the ruling Democrat Party for alleged campaign-contribution irregularities; the red shirts have scheduled January to relaunch their street protests; and the opposition Pheu Thai Party is ready to submit a no-confidence motion, citing injustice, double standards and, of course, corruption.

It must be noted that charges of injustice and double standards hold no weight on their own. But when they are backed up by evidence of graft in government, they become very powerful indeed.

Even though Pheu Thai lacks a credible leader, this coming year will mark the first time a pro-Thaksin party is not being hounded by threats of a potential legal clampdown. Parliamentary tactics, switches of allegiance and political horse-trading will intensify, making it difficult for even a squeaky-clean government to remain stable. A corruption-tainted one will find it exponentially more difficult to survive a two-pronged assault of fierce parliamentary manoeuvring and street rallies. Abhisit needs only to review what happened during the final days of the Thaksin administration.

In 2009, the PM had some big breaks. The scandal over the natural-gas-for-vehicles bus project, for example, was allowed to simmer for weeks but never boiled over, and the only threats the government received were from the very people who had proposed the project in the first place.

But this time, it will be different. And most important of all, this time there will be no more time to buy.