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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

More stimulus measures needed next year:Korn



Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij yesterday reiterated the need for stimulus measures next year to stabilise the economy, saying it remained susceptible to persistent global risk factors.

"Risks to the economy will persist next year. Despite improvements in the global economy, crises in Dubai and Greece reflect the fact that the global crisis is not yet over. The government must thus place further emphasis on stability," he said yesterday.

Korn said Bt300 billion from the Bt1.43-trillion Thai Khemkhaeng package would be disbursed next year.

He is confident Thailand's fiscal position will be strong enough to finance the measures, especially since the ministry plans to ask for Cabinet approval early next year for the proposed new land and property tax.

Tax collections should also improve, and all of this will help reduce government borrowing and fiscal deficits.

Next month, the ministry plans to host a brainstorming session with government agencies and major cooperatives on measures to increase the poor's access to funding.

Meanwhile, Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn said it would take time for the global crisis to end completely, because the US dollar would remain volatile, while joblessness in that country could affect household spending.

In addition, US and European financial institutions are saddled with bad debts, and this could affect lending capacity.

"The global economy will expand into positive territory next year, but

 holding back recovery are developed countries' weak performance. Dollar volatility will further buoy inflows into Asia, including Thailand, and this will strengthen the baht and pose threats to exports. Some assets could be overheated, and all corporations must remain on full alert," Bandid said.

He said the Dubai World fiasco had had a limited effect, because it involved only a small amount of the company's assets.

If the world economy expands positively, Thailand should witness higher export figures. Coupled with the government spending, the Thai economy should enjoy a tailwind. If lending expands uninterruptedly, that will further facilitate economic expansion.

The central bank expects global oil to average US$80 (Bt2,600) per barrel, higher than an earlier forecast of $75. Inflation is expected to remain in the range of 0.5-3 per cent.



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