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The red shirts have announced that they will hold a rally the day after tomorrow at the Democracy Monument on Rajdamnoen Avenue, calling for their kind of democracy. It coincides with Constitution Day and the red shirts claim they have no ill intention of any kind.

The rally, the red-shirt leaders say, will last from noon until midnight. They will not hold a protest march to anywhere else. If there are any untoward incidents or violence, they will not accept responsibility. Such acts will only be committed by others, they say.

If the rally takes place as planned, it could lead to heated arguments or clashes between the red shirts and some of the pink shirts who will throng the area to view the shows and fanfare along the avenue. 

The rally is improper, especially with the entire nation overjoyed at the improving health of His Majesty. Fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra has given his blessing to the rally, saying he would lead the red shirts in singing a song of praise for the King.

So we know that Thaksin wants the rally. He can well imagine that such a move will hurt the feelings of those loyal to the King. Time and again, Thaksin has shown that his claims of loyalty are the opposite of his deeds and his negative comments about the revered institution. All the same, he feigns ignorance.

The joyous mood will certainly be soured. The red shirts can be suspected of wanting some sort of confrontation at the rally, so they can then justify a plan for a prolonged sit-in to oust the government.

A key red-shirt leader claimed that the government wants to send saboteurs in red shirts to mix with the rally and instigate violence, so that blame can then be put on the red shirts. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban denied the allegation, and considered a libel suit against the accuser.

Any kind of confrontation is unwanted. It will spoil the celebrations, which are much needed after months of continuing political trouble.  What's more, a rogue junior army general hissed several days ago that armed rangers would serve as security guards for the rally. They would be ready to confront soldiers if the rally turned violent.

In the past the disgraced officer has been accurate in his predictions that rallies organised by the People's Alliance for Democracy would be hit by grenades. In a few attacks, several people were killed and scores injured. Nobody has been arrested so far.

Much depends on how many red shirts will join the rally. The timing is not right, unless their leaders are yearning for serious trouble and enough mayhem that ensures a change of government. So far, the Army chief has assured the public that no ranger force will join the rally.

But his words have to be taken with strong reservation. Long neglect on the part of the authorities concerned, including those in charge of national security, over verbal attacks against the monarchy, has led to more concerted action, seriously putting the institution in jeopardy. There has been open talk about an ambitious scheme by elements loyal to Thaksin to end the monarchy.

The government has decided not to impose the National Security Act in order to control the rally. But it could still be enforced if there is a clear and present danger over possible violence by unknown elements seeking to unseat the government. The government wants to take no chances due to the unpredictable political factors concerned.

The size of the red-shirt crowd will tell how far they can push ahead to fulfil the wish of Thaksin to return home with total freedom, with his seized assets released by the court. The earlier plan for a nationwide uprising against the Abhisit government in April was a miserable flop. If the turnout this time is small - just a few thousand - then Thaksin can expect a serious backlash and a setback at the same time.

If this show of strength ends up in a poor result, with the whole country screaming for his head, Thaksin's hope of a triumphant homecoming will be dashed forever. Not only that, he will have to find a refuge for his war dogs as well.