Map Ta Phut court decision will hurt certain pockets

Earlier, Thaksin lambasted a local press report that suggested he had lost a huge amount of money as a result of the financial meltdown in Dubai. This followed his failure to mobilise red-shirt protesters to create a nasty scene in Bangkok, in spite of collaboration from Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Thaksin denied that he had made any investments in Dubai. In fact, Thaksin has lost badly in Dubai. The Arab emirate is now seeking to restructure some US$59 billion (Bt1.95 trillion) in debt owed by its investment arm, Dubai World. Thaksin has had exposure in the real estate and financial markets in Dubai, otherwise he would not have received a red-carpet welcome in the emirate. He likes to invest during a financial boom. But a boom can also turn into a bust.

Thaksin is also about to lose his Bt76 billion currently frozen by the Thai authorities. The Supreme Court for Political Office Holders is holding a hearing into a charge that Thaksin is unusually rich. If Thaksin fails to counter the charges that he concealed his stocks overseas and that his government amended laws to benefit Shin Corp, he will never get his Bt76 billion back. The ruling is expected to be handed down sometime in January or February next year.

The Supreme Administrative Court's ruling on the 76 projects at Map Ta Phut is also very interesting. There has been talk in the financial markets that Thaksin still owns a chunk of shares in Thai energy companies, particularly PTT and its subsidiaries. During his premiership, Thaksin privatised PTT, the crown jewel of the Thai state enterprises. The Finance Ministry's holding in PTT has shrunk in a hurry to less than 50 per cent, although it was supposed to control at least 75 per cent so that the assets of PTT remained in the public domain.

PTT has more than Bt100 billion in investment commitment at Map Ta Phut. It plans to invest in a natural-gas separation plant, but this has now been put on hold due to the court's ruling.

PTT Chemical, a subsidiary of PTT, will also be affected by its planned investment in an ethane cracker, which will take natural gas feedstock from PTT's natural-gas separation plant.

According to an SCB Securities' forecast, PTT's earnings are likely to fall by 8 per cent if its Map Ta Phut investments are delayed by one year. The downward revision earnings for PTT Chemical is 17 per cent, or Bt8 a share.

If PTT makes money, Thaksin will make money too. If it doesn't, he will not.

It should be noted that the Democrats have not stepped in to take control of the key state agencies or state enterprises since they came to power a year ago. This sounds very fishy. Most of the executives associated with the old Thaksin regime are still running the show at most of these state agencies or state enterprises, which control the country's banking, finance, regulatory regimes and energy.

My guess is that there must be a sort of secret agreement between the Democrats and Thaksin so that the Democrats will not touch Thaksin's goose that lays the golden eggs.

And as we know, we can't trust the politicians. They all are playing out a high drama for us to watch.

In addition, some local astrologers are now predicting that Thaksin will lose all of his money.