Signs of de-escalation in Cambodian-Thai relations

The main task is how to get out of this diplomatic crisis without anybody losing face. A difficult task and an issue that one shouldn't underestimate. The Asean community is looking anxiously at the current situation.

The Thai chairmanship of Asean will end in December and Thailand has an interest in showing a positive balance sheet at the end of its term. The conflict with Cambodia comes mistimed.

The appointment of Thaksin Shinawatra as economic advisor to the Cambodian government and personal advisor to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen is seen by some analysts as an affront to the Thai government. The Cambodian government must be aware that Thaksin's agenda, besides his advisory role, is also to use his position as a platform for his own political campaign and to send a clear message to the Thai government and his supporters that he will continue to fight for a political comeback.

The Asean community has tried to help to solve the bilateral issue, knowing a destabilised Asean weakens its own position and is an obstacle to its ambitious future agenda. "The dispute is no longer an internal affair of Thailand or Cambodia. It is a conflict between two member countries of Asean and could affect the organisation's plan to become an economic community in the near future," the concerned Asean secretary-general, Surin Pitsuwan, said recently.

But the Asean principle of non-interference is tricky. The Asean secretariat has to be careful. One of the fundamental principles of the Asean Charter is that of non-interference, explicitly mentioned in the preamble and in Article 2 (Principles), 2e and 2f of the Charter.

However, the Asean Secretariat reacted quickly, within its limitations, to help resolve the conflict. Mr Surin sent letters to foreign ministers of all Asean member countries asking for help in settling the escalating dispute between the two countries.

There is no alternative than solving the dispute. This is why signs are now pointing towards a de-escalation. The dispute will end if Cambodia revises its position towards the Thai government, according to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. "If the Cambodian government adjusts its stance, the problems between the two countries will be resolved," Mr Abhisit said in his weekly broadcast on Sunday 15 October while attending the Apec summit in Singapore. "Thailand, as the Asean chair, will not let the Thai-Cambodian issue affect other trading partners, and I would like Thai people to be patient and show their sincerity by being good neighbours while protecting the national interest."

But the irritation between Thailand and Cambodia reveals something else: Thailand is a strong regional player. Its political weight and influence is bigger than that of its neighbours. This power must be used wisely so not to overshadow its neighbours.

At the same time Thailand has to position itself as a confident and reliable partner for the region. This could be a tricky task. However, Thailand can prove its intentions soon. Vietnam will follow Thailand as the Asean Chair from 2010. This will take away the burden of the chairmanship and give Thailand the opportunity to position itself clearer within the concert of the Asean member countries.

The next Asean summit is scheduled for April 2010 in Ho Chi Minh City. Most likely, both countries will enjoy normal relations by that time, and they will have proven one thing: bilateral irritations and disputes might lead to temporary tensions, but they will decrease and play an increasingly smaller role the more the Asean community further develops its agenda.

Alexander Mohr was a lecturer in international relations at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris (SciencesPo) and is partner for international relations at the European government relations firm Alber & Geiger in Brussels.