Is avoiding Chiang Mai a good idea?

The decision was made after the pros and cons of the trip was discussed both inside and outside the House by those who mattered as well as analysts. There was an appar-ent consensus that whether he addresses the Chamber of Commerce conference via satellite or in person, there would be consequences.

Already, the focus is not on the meeting - which is being held to tackle a few crucial matters regarding the weak economy - but on the man who was scheduled to say just a few ceremonial words to participants.

If he had decided to go, this attention would have been greatly amplified, affecting virtually everyone from the hotel staff to the highest-rank-ing provincial officials.

However, if he had a safe and uneventful trip, it would have boosted him politically and had a positive impact on his international standing as well as helped his domestic agenda in some way. If there is to be any hope at all for national reconciliation, the head of the government should be able to visit any corner of the country - with or without the protection of commandos and helicopters.

The Chamber of Commerce suggested this week that he not go. Initial concerns that this might puncture Abhisit's pride and thus have a reverse effect did not materialise. Instead, the advice gave the premier an excuse to bow out gracefully.

If this had been a state-organised function, Abhisit said, he would surely be in Chiang Mai. "But this is organised by the private sec-tor and I have to listen to what the organisers say," he rea-soned.

The red shirts might now taunt him for being a "coward" for a few days, but that should be the least of his concerns.

His no-show means he has bowed following a relatively mild bluff from the red shirts - or a solid threat if you know something that we don't. This will only encourage the use of a similar strategy in the future.

Maybe the next time it will be in Udon Thani or another province where the red shirts are strong, unified and aggres-sive enough to mount such threats, or bluffs.

In the context of the Thai crisis, which has seen Government House occupied and an international confer-ence ambushed, the Chiang Mai affair might look small. And while it may appear Abhisit has little to lose by opting not to go, it may well wonder how much he might otherwise have gained if he had decided to go.