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It's not the first time that Thaksin Shinawatra has called for postponement or cancellation of a red-shirt rally. And it's not the first time either that the fugitive has suggested an intention to negotiate a truce. This time he cited "inappropriate" timing for his followers to take to the streets. He apparently was referring to the upcoming birthday of HM the King. Or he might be unsure whether it is a good idea to give Thailand fresh political trouble immediately after triggering the country's row with Cambodia.

Whatever his motive, the Abhisit government has been given breathing space and the country can heave a temporary sigh of relief. But as far as Thaksin is concerned, the nation can feel anything but thankful. It is he who, only a few days ago, sent to his supporters what observers saw as a call to arms. "I don't know how longer my supporters can bear it," he wrote, claiming his enemies had demonised everything that he had done.

Even if Thaksin seems more sincere this time, nobody can tell whether his wish to negotiate and postpone the red-shirt rally is merely part of a mood swing. He has been alternating between introspection and belligerence, and the switches come abruptly.

The Thai-Cambodian affair has caused Thaksin a setback. There is no doubt that fresh red-shirt trouble around HM the King's birthday would further weaken whatever his agenda is. Thaksin must know this, and his statement that "Now is not the right time" (for a campaign) is as much about himself as it is about the country.

It may also have something to do with mass mobilisation. Both yellow- and red-shirt activists have seemed to lose momentum lately where street protests are concerned. The initial red-shirt plan to stage a major rally this Saturday had been proclaimed, once again, as the biggest show of force. There were reports that Pheu Thai MPs had been instructed to bring participants from their constituencies to ensure an unprecedented turnout.

"Now is not the right time" could therefore mean that organisers were struggling to get the "right number" of protesters. Since a lacklustre showing would not do the movement any good, perhaps it was better to postpone it to another day. And what's a more graceful way of backtracking than having Thaksin play the man of peace?

Or could it be something simpler - like a game of cat and mouse? Thaksin gave the "retreat" order just hours after the Cabinet agreed to put all of Bangkok under the Internal Security Act, which would have made it hard for protesters to assemble and even harder for them to move around.

Normally, enforcing the ISA would cause uproar, but, when it comes to invoking the ISA, the government has taken full advantage of lingering public anxiety left over from the Songkran violence.

Most scenarios behind any red-shirt retreat point toward mere temporary relief for the Thai public. The one scenario that might give us hope is that Thaksin has become desperate for peace talks. But even then, we could easily be brought back to square one - as long as his main conditions are a royal pardon and the return of his assets, while his opponents remain adamant that he has to serve his jail term first or at least show some real remorse.

Yet talks are always better than war, and the rival camps have simple options: start negotiations to prevent a head-on collision, or do so after the real damage is done.