Govt cannot afford to be lax in upcoming showdown with Thaksin

This time, Thaksin's final battle has been hyped as a real showdown because time is running out to prevent his Bt76-billion fortune from being seized permanently by the state. The noises coming from red-shirt leaders are that up to one million people will join a mass uprising against the government.

That number is ridiculously exaggerated by whatever measure, including the previous peaks achieved by the red shirts. They usually claim a high number of rally participants to seek money from Thaksin, the paymaster for destabilising the government. They threaten violence through protest rallies in the capital, creating havoc and misery for Bangkokians, who have dreadful memories of the red shirts on the rampage and the senseless riots during the Songkran festival.

Thaksin has summoned potential trouble-makers to get clear orders from him in Dubai, and they have done so with impunity, as if showing confidence that this final battle will lead to their victory. Never mind the disastrous consequences for the future of the country.

If Thaksin wants a million people in the streets to bring him back to power and regain his lost treasure, it will take a war chest of billions of baht. If the rallies turn ugly, leading to confrontation with soldiers and police guarding the city, the authorities could also have to deal with people who are fed up with the harassment by the red shirts. If conflicts escalate, what comes next, and the degree of mayhem, is anybody's guess.

The key factor lies in the number of red shirts turning out in the city and the scope of the rallies in the provinces. If the number is under 60,000 then the menace will not be serious, unless they resort to violence in the hope that the military will intervene to force an abrupt change of government. That would lead to a more chaotic situation.

Thaksin has spent money to lure at least 50 retired generals - all of them his classmates in the pre-cadet school - to stand by his side, plus some older veterans and ex-mercenaries from the wars in Vietnam and Laos. They have betrayed their country for Thaksin's money and the promise of more spoils if their mission is accomplished.

Thaksin's soldiers of fortune comprise the red shirts, hired thugs, members of the Pheu Thai Party and followers left from the dissolution of his two earlier parties. They are supposed to be more formidable and they also aim high - abolition of the monarchy, if possible.

Their objectives have never been kept secret. The red-shirt leaders simply intend to topple the government - via treason or otherwise. Their counterparts in Chiang Mai talked on the radio last week, saying that they would kill Abhisit if he sets foot in the province to attend the meeting of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. They will mobilise up to 100,000 people from eight northern provinces to fulfil the mission.

As of yesterday, local police and authorities were trying to get arrest warrants issued by the Criminal Court to pre-empt this blatant move and also to revoke the bail given to them earlier. Putting them in confinement will take a lot of strength from the entire force.

If Thaksin wants this showdown, the government must be prepared to respond likewise, or more forcefully, if violence flares up. Either the Internal Security Act must be enforced, or martial law imposed, if necessary, to ensure effective crowd control.

At the same time, Abhisit must tell the people what he is prepared to do, because the rallies will be protracted until the government is ousted. He must ensure that the armed forces stay on his side, and convince them that there is no need for a coup, never mind how frequently this option has been raised by speculators and analysts.

What has brought us to this stage of a possible confrontation? Weak hands on the part of the government and foolish complacency on the part of those who fail to accomplish their tasks. The rest boils down to too much politics and incompetence. The government has not done what it should have: That is, to use its official media apparatus to enlighten those people who still have blind faith in Thaksin and his money. It has also failed to use the legal machinery to deal with law-breakers and red-shirt thugs for their callous attacks on the monarchy and other criminal offences. There is no room for excuse. The government will be forced to try to survive this latest adversity.