The Rush for Survival: New Catharsis in Malaysian Politics?

After losing much support in the March 8 election last year, the prospect of being thrown out of power at the next one is real. Survival is now the name of the game, and the BN is in a hurry to secure it, as if elections are just around the corner. Such are the tectonic shifts in the political landscape, the parties are still reeling from the aftershocks. An uncertain future lies ahead.

Three key allies in BN representing the main ethnic groups - Malays, Chinese and Indians - are in varying degrees of existential angst. They are reacting to this either with unprecedented reform (UMNO); a power struggle (the Malaysian Chinese Association, MCA); or in continued self-denial (Malaysian Indian Congress, MIC). There are other coalition partners in no better a state. But all know one thing: Their positions are far from secure.

Unless UMNO succeeds in turning itself around and inspiring the others to buck up, the BN is under serious threat and far from ready for any election, should one be called soon. Yet, the combined opposition, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) led by Anwar Ibrahim, whose emergence triggered this state of flux, is in no better state either. In fact, the PR seems to be in a worse shape than when it started with great promise.

Anwar's People's Justice Party (PKR), the lynchpin of the three-party Pakatan opposition alliance, is proving to be fragile - even as it draws in new blood at the top with the entry of former leaders from UMNO and MCA. Its Chinese-based ally, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), is in constant ideological tension with the Islamist PAS, despite attempts by both to paper over the differences. PAS, once the most cohesive of the three opposition partners, is also showing signs of internal strain.

A fissure that was supposed to have gone has suddenly resurfaced - between those who want to forge Malay and Muslim unity with UMNO and those who want to remain loyal to the opposition. Out of the blue, PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz  pushed for a party emergency meeting ala UMNO and MCA to resolve its own leadership issue. What's shocking is his suggestion that the party president, Hadi Awang, who is leaning toward reconciliation with UMNO, has to go.

This new tension within PAS, if not handled well, is bound to shake the stability of the Pakatan coalition. Although the opposition alliance captured five (later reduced to four) of the 13 states in the country, such internal tensions will undermine public confidence in its ability to run an effective government should it come to power at the next election. Pakatan can even unravel if its glue, Anwar, loses his second sodomy trial and is jailed.

Meanwhile, the BN-led ruling coalition is claiming to be winning back ground across all ethnic groups. Note the song and dance over the BN/UMNO victory in the recent Negri Sembilan by-election - before PM Najib Razak toned it down with a warning that one swallow does not a summer make. If it is true that the BN is winning back the support of all ethnic groups, it means Najib's unifying slogan of  "1Malaysia" may be working with the minorities. Still, it may be too early to say that the flowback will be replicated in a general election.

What the opposition should worry about is if voters are beginning to be weary of Pakatan as well. For if that is the case, UMNO and the BN can influence support by determining the pace of their own reforms. The more reformist they become, the more attractive the ruling coalition will be. But can the BN change, and fast enough?

For BN to make an effective turnaround, a few things have to work: First, UMNO's reform drive, which Najib pushed through with ease, must not falter. Second, UMNO's key partners, MCA and MIC, must follow UMNO's drumbeat of reform and change without fail. Third, BN as a whole must click to prevent a collective slide into oblivion. This can be tough, especially when complications can come in unexpected ways.

In the week that Najib pushed for reforms within UMNO, MCA grabbed headlines with a new power struggle that would only turn off already disillusioned Chinese. UMNO was already under pressure from its own ranks to bypass MCA and MIC to reach out directly to the Chinese and Indian communities. UMNO leaders dropped big hints that they would be forced to review the BN consensus on power-sharing if MCA and MIC leaders lose the support of their communities. UMNO will not want to be out of power by virtue of the weaknesses of its ethnic allies.

The upshot is that Najib was forced to step in and put pressure on MCA leaders to resolve their internal dispute quickly. Notice how swiftly the two rivals - Ong Tee Kiat and Chua Soi Lek - made up within days of their dispute blowing into the open. It is hard to believe they had on their own volition suddenly decided to patch things up. After UMNO and MCA, the next party to be shaken up is MIC. Expect Samy Vellu to finally call it quits - in spite of his dogged clinging to power.

Clearly, Malaysian politics is going through a new catharsis - this time on both sides of the divide. Both the BN and Pakatan are in pain. The two-horse race to woo the rakyat is picking up steam. Whoever recovers faster will win federal power. If both coalitions reform earnestly enough to convince voters that they deserve support, the ultimate winner will be the electorate. No doubt, a two-coalition system, with two sets of allies ready to rule, will be the best outcome for Malaysian politics since the earth-shattering changes of March 8 last year. But will the drift towards the opposition stay, or will the voters swing back to BN, as they tend to do at alternate elections?

Yang Razali Kassim is senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.