Plans made for Thais possibly get 2nd wave of flu

More than 15 million people, including children under five, were expected to get the second wave of the swine-flu pandemic, because most people had not been immunised against the virus, the Public Health Ministry said yesterday.

But the second wave was not expected to be as severe because medics have learnt how to handle the bug.

"We already know the virus' strengths and weaknesses and have learnt how to deal with it," Health Ministry permanent secretary Dr Paijit Warachit said.

According to the ministry, the first wave of the 2009 flu killed 182 people from 31 to 40 years of age, between April 28 to October 24. Some 90 were men and 92 women.

Though the fatalities have dropped, the disease is expected to continue spreading.

"The factors that will reinforce the second wave are cool weather, new infections from countries in the northern hemisphere and the lack of effective preventive measures, said Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, who oversees the National Outbreak Prevention Operations Centre.

Meanwhile, Chulalongkorn University virologist Dr Yong Pooworawan said so far there had only been three cases where the type-A (H1N1) virus had been found to "resist" the oseltamivir drug, and so far there have been no reports of person-to-person transmission.

In a bid to tackle the second wave, the outbreak-prevention centre announced new moves yesterday to deal with the virus.

For starters, the centre will stop using thermal scanners, which have been deployed at Suvarnabhumi Airport since May to detect infections among arriving passengers. Instead, it will distribute pamphlets with information on the disease.

Over the past six months, the thermal scanners have used to try to detect flu-like symptoms in more than six million arrivals, but only one person has been confirmed as having the type-A (H1N1) virus.

Meanwhile, the Public Health Ministry wants hospitals across the nation to prepare for new swine-flu cases. The ministry will also provide a team of specialists to analyse risk factors to try to prevent deaths and serious illness.

In addition, a zoning system run by university hospitals will be set up so patients with severe symptoms can be referred to specialists. Telephone consultation will be also provided to doctors nationwide and health experts will visit the influenza-affected areas.

The ministry also will instruct provincial authorities to set up a 'war room' so they can be prepare to handle the pandemic effectively.

Once two million doses of inactivated vaccine have been delivered, medical workers will be vaccinated.

They will be followed by women more than three months pregnant, people who weigh more than 100 kilograms; six-month-old kids; people over 64; and people with neurological impairment.

The first shipment is due to arrive in December and January. The ministry said it would order another three million doses if the first lot was not enough.

Dr Tawee Chotepitayasunon, head of the Public Health Ministry's academic team, said lives could be saved if people seek treatment in time.