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Make no mistake. There's a thin line between illusions and realities in Thai politics, and things still have to be looked at on a day-to-day basis. Three or four weeks ago, one would have been pronounced foolishly optimistic if predicting this government would last beyond the year's end. Now, the nine-month constitutional amendment timeframe is being decried by critics as a time-buying strategy. Such criticism, when compared with the previous general belief that the government would never last that long, is a compliment on the emerging stability of the government.

That can change overnight, but as things stand, Abhisit's "shaky" coalition seems to be comfortably outliving Samak Sundaravej's government. Yet the biggest difference between Abhisit and Samak, as well as Somchai Wongsawat, is not how long they are in office, but "where" their office is. Abhisit has been able to work at Government House for close to 10 months now, and in the current political context, that is quite a feat.

A few factors contribute to the apparent shift of mood. The Supreme Court's acquittal of Newin Chidchob and Co in the rubber-sapling case may pave the way for Newin to challenge Abhisit in the future, but it has cooled the political temperature when the prime minister needs it. The Bhumjai Thai Party's about-face regarding the police chief appointment - whether it was due to alleged horse-trading involving some "buses from hell" or economic stimulus budgets - means Abhisit is close to getting complete control on this battlefront.

And the red shirts are split, tired, and more or less shackled by the petition they submitted to the palace. The petition campaign was a big gamble, because while it was intended to highlight claims that Thaksin was politically persecuted, it has also greatly restricted the red shirts, who now must behave themselves after resorting to such "peaceful" means.

In addition, the issue of charter amendment has failed to spark serious conflict, at least not yet. After Abhisit's meeting with coalition leaders on Sunday, it seems the government parties have agreed to sweep their constitutional differences under the carpet in exchange for the prospect of nine more months. The opposition Pheu Thai Party, virtually headless and chronically voiceless, has been unable to put on a convincing show regarding the Constitution.

In Parliament, Abhisit's breathing space will last until January, when Pheu Thai can launch a censure motion. What happens between now and then can redefine the illusion of a long stay and the reality that this is hardly a government on solid footing. Pheu Thai alone may not have the strength to overthrow Abhisit, but if the prime minister lets gossip about corruption in the economic stimulus programme grow into rumbles, the imminent censure could be a nail in the coffin.

More unpredictable is the military. At least that's what some analysts believe. Their theory is the men in uniform remain restless, paranoid and hungry for power. In other words, another coup is always possible, and it might not come with the usual pretext of fighting corruption or defending the monarchy.

The other school of thought, though, believes that no pretext can overcome the big "letdown" that followed the 2006 coup, something the military has been unable to bounce back from. Moreover, who now will call for a coup or support it? It was the People's Alliance for Democracy last time, but the PAD has joined mainstream parliamentary politics. The red shirts have, naively or not, declared themselves an anti-coup movement. 

Abhisit, it seems, has brought himself to the brink but managed to step away from it. His image has helped but he has also been fortunate that the red shirts are not yellow shirts, and the best "alternative" the opposition bloc has to offer is Chalerm Yoobamrung. (Probably that's the main reason why Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is being dragged out of retirement.) And nobody knows for sure how many secret deals have had to be made to help him last this long.

Not bad for someone known, among other things, for a tendency to alienate himself. But it will only get tougher and tougher for him. Of course, in politics you can be apparently isolated and irreplaceable at the same time. But only in politics can you be most vulnerable when you are supposed to be the strongest.