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Is MPC getting ready for yet another crisis?

THAILAND'S Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which regulates the country's key interest rates, convened for a special meeting last Thursday because its members needed to formulate a strategy to cope with a possible second economic crisis.



The MPC session came as quite a surprise, given that its next meeting was scheduled to be on October 21. A member of the MPC, which currently maintains the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent, said the body had discussed a number of risk factors which could hit the Thai economy in coming months.

Among these factors are the domestic political situation and the global economic outlook following the first anniversary of the collapse of giant US investment bank Lehman Brothers this month.

Due to these uncertainties, the Bank of Thailand is understood to have delayed the revision of Thailand's GDP forecasts for this year and next.

In July, the central bank released a forecast of minus 3 per cent to minus 4.5 per cent for 2009 and a forecast of 3 to 5 per cent growth for 2010.

Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry revised its GDP forecast for this year due to signs of recovery in the global and Thai economy.

Slower contraction of Thai exports and unemployment were cited among the positive signs of a Thai economic recovery.

As a result, the Finance Ministry's new forecast of minus 2.5 per cent to minus 3 per cent is more optimistic.

Regarding the global economic outlook, it's clear that the US and other major economies in the West are not yet out of the woods.

The US Fed fund rate, for example, was kept unchanged at 0.25 per cent when US authorities met earlier this week, signalling their intention to give more time to the US economic stimulus package to work as American recovery is still far from solid at this stage.

Over the past year, the US government has only dealt with immediate problems following the financial meltdown.

There has been no restructuring of its financial system yet, even though major European economies such as Germany have called for stricter supervision of the world's financial system to prevent future crises.

For example, financial institutions should be subject to higher capital adequacy ratios so as to reduce their ability to leverage and take excessive risks.

In addition, investment bankers' bonuses, especially those paid out by Wall Street and City of London firms, should be capped.

During the heyday of Wall Street, it was not unusual for high-performance bankers to get as much as US$100 million (Bt3.4 billion) in bonuses per person per year.

Such an outrageous financial incentive led to unprecedented level of risk-taking among these bankers. However, taxpayers' money would later on be used to bail out these reckless financial institutions as they were considered "too big" to fail.

So, drastic measures to solve the US and global financial system's fundamental problems are necessary to prevent another round of crisis.

Meanwhile, the governments of France, Japan, and Germany are understood to be in favour of winding down their economic stimulus programmes faster than the US or Britain as they are increasingly worried about the negative consequences of these schemes in coming years, especially those that could be caused by massive inflation.

Meanwhile, China, the Asian economic giant, which has also committed itself to a massive economic stimulus programme, is also worried about the huge US deficits and weaknesses of the dollar largely because of the mainland's enormous exposure to US dollar assets.

Overall, it seems the world's major economies are still struggling and hence it is necessary for Thai policy-makers to keep their fingers crossed.



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