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The Abhisit administration is trying to convince the Thai public that a government cannot possibly collapse over political disagreements on the selection of a new National Police chief. However, whether or not such a strong belief exists within the coalition itself is anyone's guess.

Although Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva did not look particularly concerned before his week-long trip to the United Nations, which begins tomorrow, the unsettled, divisive process to name a new head of the National Police has undeniably edged much closer to boiling point.

Abhisit has staked his leadership, while the Bhum Jai Thai Party refuses to budge. With both sides getting substantial backing in the 11-member Police Commission, the deadlock has created a very unhealthy political atmosphere and invited lobbying from all fronts.

The prime minister's last card is to name an acting police chief to replace General Patcharawat Wongsuwan, who was doomed by legal cases, and leave the search for the outgoing chief's permanent successor on the back burner.

Can Abhisit do that? A similar sort of solution was tried by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2004, when legal obstacles prevented him from officially replacing police chief Sant Sarutanond with a permanent successor. So, Pol General Sunthorn Saikwan ended up serving as acting head of police for several months.

Abhisit, on the other hand, is on far shakier ground. Thaksin was at his omnipresent peak back in 2004 and faced no threats of a government collapse over Sunthorn's appointment.

Abhisit has the Bhum Jai Thai Party to worry about, not to mention problems in his own ruling Democrat Party, where kingmaker Suthep Thaugsuban and senior party member Niphon Promphan are known to be supporting the other candidate.

The prime minister's choice, General Patheep Tanprasert, could be named the acting police chief, but if this is done, it will surely leave Bhum Jai Thai and other backers of General Jumpol Manmai fuming. The current acting police chief, General Thani Sombunsap, is another choice.

However, whatever Abhisit plans to do, he must move with legal swiftness and precision because waiting in the wings is Priewpan Damapong, the former brother-in-law of Thaksin. Priewpan has every right to pounce on the post because he has high seniority in the police force.

Considering the possible consequences of ramming through Patheep's nomination or yielding to pressure and letting Jumpol take the police helm, holding out to appoint an acting police chief while guaranteeing nothing might be the only route available for Abhisit.

At least it will buy him a little more time, though critics may say that naming an acting chief of police would only make the bomb's fuse wire longer.

The problem is threatening to spread and undermine the entire political system. And the sad irony is that these mounting problems involve an institution of men in uniform who are supposed to be kept away from politics. The selection process, in fact, was only introduced a few years ago with the aim of diluting political influence, initially wielded exclusively by the prime minister, when it came to the fate of the police chief. As it turns out, we have utterly failed to prevent the police from being politicised and the institution has featured in many key events in our never-ending political turmoil.

After the bloodbath in May 1992, we had a brief period of peace between politics and the armed forces. For a few years, the Thai public did not have to worry about who became the Army chief, Air Force chief or the head of national police. Nor did we have to hold our breath every time there were reports of disagreements over who should get the top jobs in the armed forces.

Sadly, this ongoing police chief saga means we may have gone back beyond square one. Debates should have been about public safety, crime suppression, modernisation or reforms aimed at reducing corruption in the ranks, but instead we have had to put up with reports on who backed whom and the political ramifications.

The worst part is it will only get worse. The national divide ensures that nepotism will continue feeding on the "we-have-to-do-it-otherwise-our-enemies-will-do-it" mindset. Qualifications have featured very little in Thailand's top-tier armed forces reshuffles, but from now on politics will determine everything without any shame. We are going back to the old days when rumours of a coup flew around before every seasonal transfer, especially if big names were involved.

When Abhisit suggested that the police chief issue could not make a government crumble, he might be referring to the brief, surreal period in the aftermath of May 1992. This time the threat is real and there is no sign it can be defused easily.

Apparently, even Abhisit cannot tell how this is going to end. He is going to the United Nations with what originally looked like his own problem and anxiety seeping out of the political realm. His government may yet see this crisis through, but the Thai public has seen enough to realise that it's just a symptom of a system that is still very ill and unlikely to be healed any time soon.