Police chief debacle wounds both coalition and Democrats

Just hours after the premier transferred Patcharawat to an inactive post at the PM's Office Patcharawat announced he would quit. He said he wanted to rest before he reached his mandatory retirement in 21 days.

Last Monday the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) found grounds to seek both criminal and disciplinary action against Patcharawat for his involvement in the police crackdown on an anti-government protest outside Parliament last October 7.

Although there has been a prolonged debate over Patcharawat occupying the top police post, his resignation could, in fact, undermine the government' stability.

First, the manner of his departure could cause more rifts between the ruling Democrat Party and the military, as well as raise tensions between the ruling party and Bhum Jai Thai, which has 32 MPs and was instrumental in installing Abhisit as prime minister last December.

Patcharawat is the younger brother of Prawit, the powerful Defence Minister, who is closely allied with the Bhum Jai Thai. The party is a key member of the coalition government.

Prawit was reportedly very angry seeing his brother first sidelined, then ordered to take leave and seconded by Abhisit. Prawit may follow his brother to resign from the post.

The so-called "blue" Bhum Jai Thai group, led by Prawit, was also widely known for having a close connection with the military.

Last year, then acting PM Chaovarat Chanweerakul, now leader of Bhum Jai Thai, re-appointed Patcharawat as police chief after he was seconded to an inactive post at the PM's Office by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat in the wake of deaths and many injuries in the crackdown on yellow shirt protesters on October 7.

The "Patcharawat effect" may also deepen rifts inside the Democrat camp, notably relations between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his government manager Suthep Thaugsuban and PM's Secretary-general Niphon Promphan.

The three differed recently on the choice of a new police chief. Suthep and Niphon threw their support behind Gen Jumpol Manmai, instead of the premier's nominee Pol Gen Patheep Tanprasert.

The police chief debacle caused problems for Suthep and Niphon, both of whom lost favour with the party after the PM's nominee was outvoted by Bhum Jai Thai ministers or officials close to them at the Interior Ministry.

Suthep's party-mates no longer listen to their secretary-general. But it appears Suthep had no choice but to keep backing the government to stay in power, albeit reluctantly.

In the latest meeting of coalition parties, Suthep said his partners saw that "If Abhisit is finished, the Democrats would be finished too. So for now we have to hold together."

Despite insisting coalition partners did not seem to believe the government manager's words, they realised these conflicts were a long way from being healed. All were waiting to see how it would end.

"Newin [Chidchob, the real leader of Bhum Jai Thai] once said he would not make any move over Patcharawat. Let the Democrats handle it," a source quoted Newin as saying.

If the premier felt cornered, or forced to decide about his political future, he has three choices: reshuffle the Cabinet, resign, or dissolve Parliament and call an election.

But neither reshuffling the Cabinet nor resigning could solve the entire problem. It was too risky for Abhisit to step down, as he couldn't be sure he or the Democrats would get top post again. In such a vacuum, all politicians would scramble to form their own government, including ousted fugitive former PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

So, the premier may have only one choice left: to dissolve the House. It just depends how Abhisit defuses the bomb Patcharawat has lobbed in his direction.