Big fish caught in a small net means more political chaos

It took several months for the NACC to make the decision. Accused are former Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, former deputy prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Police General Patcharawat Wongsuwan. 

The controversial national police chief will face severe disciplinary action while Somchai and Chavalit will be charged under Article 157 of the Criminal Code, which is feared by civil servants and state officials. The result had been expected, but nobody was certain until it was formally announced.

What is the next move? We have to see whether the evidence compiled by the NACC will be deemed sufficient for public prosecutors to proceed with the criminal charges. The public has less faith in the middle-level judicial process due to pressure from political influence and some officials' loyalty to Thaksin Shinawatra.

This is a landmark decision by the NACC. Two former prime ministers are caught in the net, which traditionally has managed to catch only small fry. The low public confidence in the performance of public prosecutors is based on the procrastination over the case involving Thaksin's cronies now also on the run.

Chavalit and Somchai will spend time consulting with their lawyers. For Chavalit it was his schmoozing and desire to please Somchai during the protracted protests by the yellow shirts which did for him this time. His directive for the police to go ahead with the violent crackdown was actually against his nature. Though he appears to be the fall guy, this will be an expensive lesson for the ex-Army chief who habitually falls for requests for favours.

How fast can these cases move? This is hard to tell. Many cases are pending for years before they are filed with the court. It's not that the police or public prosecutors are overloaded with too many tasks. Most delays are due to political pressure and connections.

It's a long haul for the legal process. Chavalit and Somchai can hang on with delaying tactics from the Criminal Court to the Supreme Court. It should take a few years, if not more. They can still enjoy life and go about their usual routine in their retirement years.

This could also pose political difficulties for the Abhisit government now that many politicians stand a high risk of going to jail. Former Cabinet members from the Thaksin years face court verdicts on two criminal cases involving corruption in rubber-sapling procurement and government lotteries. They see jail terms as possible and may have already planned to go abroad so that the judgements can be postponed.

If they are found guilty in the two cases, the country will be without scores of politicians with unpalatable track records and behaviour. Their cronies and allies will certainly struggle to seek a pardon for reduced sentences. It will be a significant episode in our political history if politicians are herded to prison in droves.

PM Abhisit will have to be more alert and careful as more political trouble is expected, with street protest rallies and heckling in the House.

Somchai is Thaksin's brother-in-law, and when he was prime minister he was regarded as an obedient nominee who wanted only to reclaim Thaksin's Bt76 billion in frozen assets and the dropping of all criminal charges.

The red-shirt rally scheduled for September 19 is now seen as less of a problem; they are weaker than at their peak during the bloody Songkran riot in the city. But Thaksin will not be sitting on his hands. He will step up the pressure through his daily talks from exile via Internet radio and other channels.

Pol General Patcharawat has to stand down, making room for Abhisit to name an acting police chief. By now, the embattled chief executive should feel a bit more at ease. Relief is possible only when his choice of new police chief is endorsed by the committee he heads. Then he can expect more trouble in and outside the House from Thaksin and his cronies.

House sessions will be tumultuous when coalition partners and opposition press for constitutional amendments to suit their desires to maintain gutter politics. The high wire for Abhisit seems endless. Does he enjoy crisis management and combative House debates, or is he even more lonely at the top?