Jumpol or Pateep? Guessing time again

Simply put, although we have wasted many years, a Democrat-Pheu Thai marriage, which seems increasingly likely in theory, will be the biggest betrayal for all. Some may ask if this is not the best form of reconciliation, what can possibly be. The only answer I can think of is "anything but".

Anyway, it's not going to happen in the next few months so we'll stick with the real issue at hand. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's borrowed time regarding the new police chief is almost up and this matter is a test more real than anything else. The political difference between having Pateep Tanprasert and Jumpol Manmai as the new head of national police is simply huge.

If it's Pateep, Abhisit's leadership will surge. This issue has somehow become the most crucial barometer of his political courage. His shaky relationship with the yellow shirts will improve and the plan to "dilute" the red from the police force will make real progress.

Problem is, the new-found courage cannot guarantee stability. Things can get even worse. How the Bhum Jai Thai Party, which is known to be backing the other candidate, will take the defeat remains to be seen.

Abhisit, it is believed, doesn't want the police and the military to be too politically close. Putting Patcharawat Wongsuwan away is the only first step in diluting the red among the men in uniforms.

If it's Jumpol, brace yourselves for the strongest wave of House dissolution rumours. He is staunchly backed by Patcharawat, seen as pro-red, will further boost the already bloated Bhum Jai Thai ego, and keep the strong relations between police and the military intact.

So, as we can see, the cutthroat politics involving the new police chief means the national divide is as grave as ever. To add to that, the Newin Chidchob camp, in backing Jumpol and showing resentment regarding other imminent promotions at the top of the bureaucracy, has helped ensure that the situation among Bhum Jai Thai, Democrat and Pheu Thai parties remains a highly fluid love-hate triangle.

This might explain how the parallel issue of an outrageous Democrat-Pheu Thai alliance came about. All that is happening in Thai politics may be hard to understand, but at least one sign seems clear: Everyone is feeling insecure.