Worst is over but recovery depends on govt action

Land & Houses (L&H) president Anant Asavabhokin, PTT president and chief executive Prasert Bunsumpun and Siam Cement Group president Kan Trakulhoon all said they believed the recovery would be gradual and in a "checkmark" shape. The speed will depend heavily on the government's ability to restore confidence among investors, consumers and travellers.

"All governments are now churning out similar policies. Most importantly, Thailand's government must restore confidence," Prasert told the seminar, entitled "Thailand in the Post-Crisis Landscape".

Anant compared the political wrangling to a school sports day that required huge energy on both sides. He is optimistic both sides are negotiating to end the conflict this year.

"It cannot continue. Everyone's exhausted. Political turbulence is now the biggest concern besides influenza," he said. Anant said due to the changing economic landscape following the economic crisis, it is getting more and more difficult to create a business plan. In times of crisis, L&H relies more on information technology and outsourcing.

It now operates more than 2,000 serviced apartment rooms in Bangkok, employing some 200 staff. The company has frozen hiring and increased management efficiency.

"Once the political conflicts are over, the political situation will be stable, and Thailand's economy will improve quickly as confidence rises," Anant said.

Kan believes the Thai economy will show positive growth in the fourth quarter if the stimulus package proceeds according to plan. However, he expressed concern about the slowness of its implementation and urged the government to relax the bidding process so that the economy could benefit quickly.

"I don't know if it's good at making money, but the government is bad in terms of spending. If this project turns out not to be so scrupulous, |it can be fixed later.

"Itmust be kicked off now, in order to boost confidence," Kan said.

At PTT, aside from liquidity management, the company draws up different scenarios in advance, and business plans are carried out in line with the present situation.

Meanwhile, there are opportunities in crisis, as many companies are selling themselves. Prasert said during the crisis, the PTT Group managed to pick up a coal business.

Kan said it was necessary for companies to maintain their liquidity even though the economy was picking up.

"Banks always offer you loans when you're doing well, but they tend to squeeze you for payments when you're doing badly," he said.