Suchinda's objection tips balance of power

Last week General Suchinda Khraprayoon, the former prime minister, emerged to warn the red-shirt agitators. He made it clear he did not agree with their attempt to mobilise seven million signatures nationwide as part of a campaign to seek a royal pardon for Thaksin Shinawatra. Suchinda's words are crucial, coming at a time when political polarisation in this country has heightened to the point it could break up into another episode of violence. It should be noted that Suchinda, who lost his power in the 1992 May tragedy, still musters enormous influence in politics. He still has the ears of most of the military top brass.   By voicing his objection against the red-shirt protesters' signature campaign, Suchinda has tipped the balance of power away from the red camp, led by Thaksin, and the blue camp, led by General Pravit Wongsuwan and Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda.

The red camp and the blue camp have formed an alliance at this critical juncture, where a behind-the-scenes power play is being exerted at full force. The police force belongs to the red camp, while about half of the military force back the blue camp. Except for the Democrats, most of the politicians in the House of Representatives either support the red camp or the blue camp.

Sondhi Limthongkul's yellow camp now feels largely relieved by General Suchinda's fresh move. So does Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who also has some breathing room to manoeuvre.

Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, now adviser to the Democrat Party, has cautioned Abhisit against any inclination to bow to the pressure of the red and blue camps. He is afraid the Democrats could be quickly flushed down the drain with other losers by the growing confrontation and potential clashes ahead. Suthep Thaugsuban, deputy prime minister and secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has acted as a link between the Democrats and the red and blue camps, playing his role so perplexingly that nobody is certain which side he is on now. Increasingly, Suthep will be isolated from his party as Abhisit seeks to become his own man. It took the indecisive Abhisit a while before he could remove Pol Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan from standing in the way of Pol General Thanee Somboonsap's investigation into the assassination attempt against Sondhi. The blue and red camps had threatened to bring the Abhisit government down if Patcharawat were to be sacked.

The situation remains intense in all camps. Nobody dares to breathe. One signal mistake could be fatal. We are witnessing a political conflict developing toward a perfect polarisation. General Anupong earlier showed his position by saying that as a military adviser to His Majesty the King, he had no opinion on the royal petition drive on behalf of Thaksin. General Surayuth Chulnanont, former prime minister and now member of the Privy Council, also brushed aside this question by saying he had no opinion. Only General Phichit Kulavanitr, another member of the Privy Council, came out strongly against the red-shirted protesters' petition drive. He blasted the red shirts for their attempts to politicise the monarchy for their own interests.

During this episode, we have yet to hear the wise words of General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council. He has been conspicuously absent from the scene. What is exactly in his mind?

There are two big issues at play now in Thai politics.

The first involves the outcome of the investigation into the assassination attempt against Sondhi. The second issue is the campaign to seek a royal pardon for Thaksin. Both events are intertwined, threatening to explode into violence or a military intervention of some sort if they are not handled appropriately. Thanee's investigation has uncovered the suspects as belonging to some prominent members of the red camp and the blue camp. Of course, both camps would exercise all power at their disposal, on the ground and underground, to block the police investigation. Many of their prominent members could go to jail as a result of this case.

What is equally threatening to the political stability is the plan of the red-shirt protestors to submit their petition on behalf of Thaksin on August 17 to His Majesty the King. They plan to come out in tens of thousands to make their way in fanfare to the Grand Palace to submit the petition before mobilising a rally at Sanam Luang. We all know with a good conscience that this petition is morally wrong and legally wrong. A fugitive, who does not repent his wrong-doing, is not in a position to seek a royal pardon for his jail sentence.

The act of seeking a royal pardon for Thaksin is no more than an outright challenge to the integrity of the Thai Monarchy.

The situation on August 17 is designed to repeat the red shirts' attempt at a People's Revolution on Songkran Day of April 13, 2009. One that day, however, they failed to ignite violence on the streets to the point that would allow a military intervention. The blue camp was subdued. Subsequently, the red-shirted protesters were quashed from the streets. Now they are regrouping and planning another attack or another attempt at the People's Revolution for the benefit of one individual.

If Thanee's investigation proves to have gone too far, chances of violence would increase. A confrontation is developing to a point that the losers will be those who blink first.