Naming new police chief a fine balancing act for PM

For weeks, news headlines have focused on the fate of national police chief General Patcharawat Wongsuwan. The drama related to Patcharawat's job has even attracted the attention of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

In the latest twist, Patcharawat reportedly agreed to take leave of absence and a trip to China in order to cool down the jitters surrounding his work.

Abhisit has fuelled the uncertainty by wanting a say in naming the acting police chief. The plot further thickened after the prime minister revealed his decision would be based on job suitability, instead of the usual criterion of seniority.

The two events may help to explain the current brouhaha in the police service.

First, consider Patcharawat's retirement in September. And second, the intense infighting to succeed him.

Patcharawat faces two key problems preventing him from fading away quietly upon retirement. The foremost is that his exit coincides with the restructuring of the police service.

The other is the ongoing struggle between the yellow shirts and the red shirts to influence the police.

Police restructuring, scheduled to take effect on August 16, is a sweeping move to overhaul the service comprising 105,375 positions - an unprecedented opportunity to fill top slots for more than 1,000 generals and colonels.

Patcharawat, acting in cahoots with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, pushed through a rotation list for top positions affecting more than 150 police generals. The two cited the new structure as the reason to rush the list for Cabinet approval.

The list was in the process of being submitted for royal approval when Abhisit realised foul play and suspended it.

It is left unsaid that because of the controversial police list, Abhisit has now less confidence in his deputy Suthep. At this juncture, the police rotation is put on hold until Patcharawat's successor emerges.

The police service is severely impacted by political polarisation. The red shirts and the yellow shirts have their vested interests - the two camps wanting to sway police reports related to street protests. And it is a stark reality that police appointments do impact the political scene and vice versa. Even though Patcharawat has less than 60 days left in office, his presence or absence for a single day can work magic to shape or reshape police proceedings.

The next issue to consider is the power struggle in the police service.

During his five years in power, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra managed to install a number of henchmen in top positions. The Democrats now face a daunting task in reconfiguring the police upper echelons.

 Despite dozens of candidates, Abhisit has just two choices to pick from as acting police chief. He is forced to choose either General Thanee Somboonsap or General Patheep Tanprasert.

General Prieopan Damapong, the senior-most officer after Patcharawat, can never be a choice because he is Thaksin's brother-in-law. And his job record is far from exemplary. Even the Somchai Wongsawat government did not name him a caretaker chief when the opportunity arose last year.

All other candidates for the top job either lack seniority or are seen as linked to the red-shirt camp. General Wongkot Maneerin is a police cadet classmate of Thaksin. General Jongrak Juthanont is seen as close to the red shirts.

After picking either Thanee or Patheep as the stop-gap chief, Abhisit will have to finalise his decision within a month to name the new chief. Unfortunately, he does not have much leeway to weigh his options.

General Jumpol Manmai once served as the intelligence czar under Thaksin, although he has reportedly distanced himself from the red shirts.

General Wichien Potposri, General Wiroj Phaholvech and General Watcharapol Prasarnratchakit were recently elevated to the their positions, lack seniority and may not have enough clout to win Police Commission endorsement.

If he makes just one mistake in orchestrating the police reshuffle, Abhisit may end up having to name Prieopan or Wongkot or Jongrak. If this happens, the fractious politics will escalate as the government and the police service go their separate ways.