Abhisit faces the final choice: a do-or-die battle

It was a warm and heartfelt event among family members, relatives and acquaintances. What about friends from political circles? It is hard these days for the young leader to tell who are friends or foes.

He knows, from the bitter experience of the past few weeks, that those who are supposed to be his friends could eventually prove to be sinister foes - judging from their guileful behaviour and deceit.

Thaksin was right when he said the younger man needs sound advice to cope with the prevailing crises, some of which are caused by the cronies of the fugitive himself. Of course, Thaksin's wish was expressed tongue in cheek, with sarcasm and a loud scoff.

With friends like these (those surrounding him, hiding long fangs behind broad grins) Abhisit does not need enemies. This should serve as a perfect description of his predicament. At times he has been seen as lonely and lost among those perceived as friends, but who actually are not.

It should be appropriate for Abhisit to seek advice from those within his party who have long years in politics. They are experienced in the thick and thin of gutter politics. They can suggest counter-strategies against the offensive moves by Thaksin and his cronies.

It is also acceptable to seek help from coalition partners who understand the nature of Thaksin's cronies better than anybody else. When the situation warrants it, Abhisit has to fight fire with fire. In this case, it would be a perfect match between his coalition partners and his opponents. There is a price to be paid. But that's for the future, after the battle is won and the war is over.

Abhisit is due to present the review of his performance over the past six months and to seek public consent for him to continue in the premiership. This amidst political, economic and social uncertainty, as the nation remains trapped in profound conflicts.

Let's accept it. The early months of his premiership were messy, with riots, violence and harsh events not experienced by his predecessor, except for the coup. Thaksin has not encountered genuine life-threatening incidents. The worst was a bomb scare.

Now that his poor performance is known to all, how much time is left for Abhisit to prove that he still has some fire left in his belly? Not too long. Is he prepared to race against time to attain some achievements worthy of a longer term in office? Only he can tell. The signs so far are not very encouraging. But we hope that he can prove us wrong.

First and foremost, it should now be clear to him that he can no longer rely on those around him. There is a pressing need to reshuffle the Cabinet to get able hands in to deal with the crises of different magnitudes. He does not have a free hand under the present circumstances and the political coalition is a necessity.

What about forcing the hands of others, convincing them that to survive together while Thaksin is breathing down their necks, drastic changes must be carried out in the Cabinet, and quickly too - so that tangible results can be achieved to stop the Thaksin offensive?

This is easier said than done, judging from the soft-spoken character of the young politician. But that is the only way out. It depends on him, whether he chooses that path or accepts an eventual downfall.

Is there an acceptable replacement if he should succumb to political defeat? A general election in the next few months would guarantee the return of the Thaksin crowd, with a simple majority or otherwise. Some of the coalition partners would switch camps if they have to choose between sweet deals and ruthless reprisals for their previous rejection of the disgraced former PM.

The Democrat Party would be back in the opposition, if not dissolved for the sin of accepting a dubious Bt258 million sum. It would be worse if some of them were banned from politics for five years, if found guilty by the Constitution Court.

Legal proceedings towards this end should take about six months. If luck remains on their side, the Democrats will be welcome in the government - but only with an impressive performance from now on.

Abhisit, like it or not, is facing a do-or-die battle. As a survivor of two attempts on his life, it should be time for him to think that trying harder in politics is not fatal if the country recovers from the present crises and the threat from Thaksin is subdued.